Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 101332
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
732 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Added scattered flurries to most of the forecast area this morning
based on observation and radar trends...otherwise forecast on
track.

UPDATE Issued at 526 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Updated for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A fairly decent day today with a few snow showers over the
Wisconsin snow belt areas. Clouds will be quite prevalent in a
moist northerly flow pattern.

Attention then turns to the main impactful event of the short term
when the next clipper begins to approach the area this evening. It
appears the majority of the area should see 1-3" of snowfall from
this system - most of which will fall overnight tonight into
Monday morning. Luckily most of the heaviest snowfall will occur
in the midnight to 4 am Monday timeframe; however, light snow
should still be falling as the Monday morning commute commences,
so roads could be a little tricky to navigate. Models seem to be
in fair agreement on both intensity and timing of this system, so
fairly high confidence in this forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Most of the week will be relatively cold because of passing
Canadian Clippers and subsequent cold snaps. These Clippers will
bring periods of light snowfall. More mild weather is possible
late this week.

Monday night and Tuesday look cold because of northerly flow in the
wake of Sunday night and Monday`s passing Clipper. An area of high
pressure will move through the Northland Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will plummet Tuesday night into the single
digits above and below zero because of the light wind speeds and
mostly clear skies. There will be some increasing cloud cover from
the west because of an approaching Clipper, so the cloud cover`s
timing will affect how cold it gets. It could be even colder if the
higher cloud cover holds off most of the night.

The GFS, European, and Canadian indicate one or two weak Canadian
Clippers will dive south the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes
region Tuesday night through Thursday. These Clippers will likely
bring light coatings of snow to the Northland, as well as another
blast of cold northerly winds Thursday.

The GFS, European, and Canadian suggest another weak Clipper could
track from Manitoba through or near Ontario and/or the Minnesota
Arrowhead sometime late Friday through Saturday. This Clipper
will bring warmer air into the region, and the northern and
eastern forecast area have the best chance of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

There is widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning, but there
should be scattering and lifting back to VFR later this morning.
Much of the afternoon should be VFR, but another Canadian Clipper
will bring snow and IFR/MVFR conditions late today into tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  14  25   3 /   0  80  40   0
INL  17  11  19  -3 /  10  80  20   0
BRD  27  21  30   8 /  10  90  40   0
HYR  25  14  28   4 /   0  80  60   0
ASX  24  14  28   8 /  20  80  60  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolfe
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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