Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251749 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1249 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEPARTED AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH 8 AM
BEFORE DIMINISHING. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC LOW WAS CENTERED FROM NE ND INTO SE MANITOBA AT
07Z. A COLD FRONT HAD REACHED THE ARROWHEAD AND EXTENDED SWD TO JUST
W OF HYR. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WAS ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS. THE STORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 09Z. EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL SFC OBS. THE FOG
SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE EWD. THE
BULK OF THE FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z. A CLEARING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SW FLOW THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO BY 18Z. A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
PASS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW AND BRING ENOUGH FORCING TO WRING OUT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KOOCHICHING INTO NW ST. LOUIS COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A SHORT WAVE TROF BY 06Z TONIGHT AS
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CENTER MOVE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TONIGHT DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS INTO WESTERN MN. THERE
SHOULD BE NO FOG FOR A CHANGE AS THE SFC WIND SHOULD STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FORMATION. THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FA ON TUESDAY
KEEPING THE FA RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.  AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT.  ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NW WI HAVING ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION.   A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION.  A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT
MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TWO MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE IN THIS PERIOD. FIRST..A LARGE AREA OF POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS IS ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS
WRN CWA. SECOND...GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER
OCCURS IN MIXING LAYER LEADING TO MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AT TIMES.
LATEST FCST SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WILL AFFECT KINL/KHIB/KDLH
TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER PROB FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECTING MAJORITY OF GUSTY WIND TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  50  67  51 /   0   0  10  10
INL  66  45  63  41 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  69  49  69  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  81  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  81  53  68  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...CANNON





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