Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210831
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
331 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE DAKOTAS...COMPLIMENTED BY BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 6000
FT...PROMOTING FALLING DEW POINTS/RH VALUES. HAVE LOWERED THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST....BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FROM THE IRON EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION WHICH MAY MISS OUT ON
SOME OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE SO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN GENERAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  64  35  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  67  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  35  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  63  32  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL





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