Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140518
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1218 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PUBLIC
FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON A COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CANADIAN RADARS
SHOWED A LARGER AREA OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MANITOBA
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO. THE COLD UPPER LOW WAS ALONG THE
ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY 12Z MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND +2C
TONIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...BECOMING LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT OR
ON MONDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS COLD SYSTEM AND WE
LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER
FIFTIES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL AS WELL RANGING FROM THE
UPPER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES. THE RECORD COOL MAXIMUM ON MONDAY AT
DULUTH IS 54 AND AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS IT IS 61. AT THIS TIME...WE
DO EXPECT TO RISE ABOVE THOSE VALUES...BUT NOT BY MUCH AT
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

LONG TERM FOCUS ON EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY ENDING THE PRECIP IN
THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME HESITANCE IN
CLEARING OUT SO QUICK AS TYPICALLY MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN PUSHING
OUT THESE LARGE SYSTEMS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINTS MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS WED MORNING AS RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S BY
DAYBREAK WED. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN THE FAR RANGES OF THE LONG TERM
MODELS OF SHORT WAVE WITH MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS
OVER THE THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A WARM RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WILL CAUSE CIGS TO SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THESE CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
AREA IN THE MORNING. HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 25HFT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE ESPECIALLY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF
LOWER CIGS AND -SHRA...BUT TIMING IN LOCATION CANNOT BE PINNED
DOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  68  46  72 /  30  10   0   0
INL  47  70  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  50  71  45  75 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  48  70  42  74 /  40  10   0   0
ASX  48  66  44  70 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







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