Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 162345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
545 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A quiet pattern is expected to develop over the Northland tonight,
lasting through the day Wednesday. Strong surface high pressure,
currently situated over central Kansas, will bring a surface ridge
over the Northland. This ridge will turn winds more southwesterly
over the region tonight, with winds strengthening overnight as the
surface pressure gradient tightens. These southwesterly winds will
also keep temperatures warmer than the last few nights. Some mid-
level clouds are expected to dive southward as a push of 850-700 mb
layer warm air advection will move southward as well. Current GOES
East satellite imagery and METAR observations in southwest Ontario
Canada are indicating some scattered to broken cloud cover, with
ceiling heights between 5 to 15 kft. This cloud cover is expected to
move in this evening and overnight. Because winds will be
southwesterly, gusting between 10 to 15 mph over much of the
Northland, warm air advection will persistent through the night. Low
temperatures tonight are expected to be between 5 and -5 degrees F.
Wind chills will still be between -10 to -20 degrees, but not
expected to reach wind chill advisory criteria.

The cloud cover from the warm air advection wing will move out by
dawn Wednesday morning, leading to a sunny and relatively warm day,
with highs in the 20s to near 30 across the Northland. Even warmer
temperatures are expected by the end of this week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A compact upper level shortwave will drop southeastward across the
CWA on Wednesday night and Thursday. The GFS features a stronger
shortwave than the ECMWF, but in terms of sensible weather, they
both bring a relatively small chance of precipitation to the CWA.
The precipitation should generally fall between midnight Thursday
through noon. Forecast soundings indicate the precipitation could
be in the form of freezing drizzle, or a mix of freezing drizzle
and snow. Fortunately, it looks like QPF will be minimal due to
the fast moving and relatively moisture starved nature of the
shortwave. Upper level ridging should then bring dry weather for
the remainder of Thursday and Thursday night. WAA and a weak
frontal boundary moving across northern Minnesota could bring some
mixed precipitation to our northern areas on Friday. Moisture is
again expected to be rather limited with this feature. Flattening
upper level flow is then expected to become more southwest over
the weekend, with the focus shifting to the potential major storm
system from Sunday into Monday. The models continue to show some
differences in terms of strength, timing and location of the
potential storm track. The ECMWF had been most supportive of a
major snow storm for our CWA, although it has backed off a bit on
the strength of the system as of this morning`s run. Nonetheless,
there is still ample time for numerous changes in the evolution of
this storm system. At this point, it looks like northern
Wisconsin could see the heaviest snowfall amounts, but that could
change. High temperatures will range from the 30s from Thursday
through Saturday, with highs cooling into the teens and 20s by
early next week. Lows will range from the teens and 20s above zero
from Wednesday night through the weekend, to the single digits
above zero by early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Strong warm air advection tonight will lead to scattered to broken
mid/upper level clouds which will become mostly scattered on
Wednesday. Strong low level winds will develop tonight and largely
remain elevated above a surface based inversion leading to
widespread low level wind shear. We remove the wind shear from the
TAFs mid to late Wednesday morning as warming causes some mixing
to develop diminishing the low level wind shear threat but
creating gusty surface winds.


DLH   1  25  19  31 /   0   0  10  10
INL  -1  27  17  30 /   0  10  30  10
BRD  -3  28  19  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  -3  23  15  32 /   0   0  10  10
ASX   3  27  18  33 /   0   0  10  20




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