Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 211550
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1050 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Updated this afternoons forecast by raising temps 1-3 degrees
which will lower rh values 3-5 percent based on current trends and
latest model forecasts. RH values already in the 30-35 percent
range at 15z. With coordination with fire weather
customers...issued red flag warning for a portion of northern
minnesota through 800 pm. fire indices are very high with these
very dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

An area of surface high pressure centered over the Minnesota and
Wisconsin region will gradually shift east and south through the
western Great Lakes region today through Sunday. Meanwhile, an
upper level ridge over the Plains will shift into the Northland
tonight and Sunday, providing the Northland with warm and sunny
weather through the weekend.

Today should be a sunny day with light winds. The exception to the
cloud cover will be over the eastern half of the Arrowhead, where
there will be enough moisture to produce scattered/broken cumulus
and some showers. The SREF/NAM12/CANADIAN-REGIONAL/NCEPWRF are
among some of the models supporting the possibility of showers.
The NAM12 and SREF have up to 100 J/kg of mixed layer cape, so
included isolated thunder in the forecast. Highs should range from
the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Tonight will be clear with very light southerly flow. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Gusty southerly flow will develop Sunday as the upper level ridge
moves through the Upper Midwest and low pressure develops over the
High Plains. The dry flow looks like it will have a hard time
producing any afternoon cumulus, except across the far western
forecast area. Sunshine and mixing from the southerly flow will
see temperatures climbing to the upper 70s to low 80s. Increased
the winds over the previous forecast, leaning on the latest
ARW/NMM/4km NAM. The mixing layers in the GFS20 and NAM12
soundings support widespread wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph, with the
stronger flow across the western forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

The upper ridge over the Northland will move east of the area
Sunday night allowing a deep southerly flow to draw PWAT values to
1.25 to near 1.5 inches on Monday. Sunday evening should be dry
but as the low level jet increases overnight and the stability
falls, showers and thunderstorms should develop over the western
half of the Northland. Forcing will increase Monday/Monday evening
as a trough of low pressure and shortwave impact the area. The
chance for showers/storms will increase to likely Monday into
Monday evening then decrease from west to east overnight. There is
a marginal threat for severe storms Monday/Monday evening but
depending on overnight/morning convection, favorable stability may
not be reached. Deep layer shear also looks marginal.

There will be a chance for more showers/storms Tuesday into
Tuesday night but forcing is not real focused and we do not expect
widespread coverage at this time.

A better chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday/Thursday.
A stronger shortwave is expected then, although there are timing
differences between the GFS and ECMWF.

Confidence Friday into Saturday is lower than average as there
are some significant differences in the models. At this time we
just have some low pops as some precipitation can`t be ruled out
given both models have an upper trough near/over the area.

Temperatures Monday/Tuesday will remain in the seventies for most
areas then cool to the mid sixties to around seventy for
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 718 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

High pressure will lead to VFR conditions across most of the
Northland through the period with winds mainly 10 knots or less.
There could be a few showers or storms that impact parts of the
Arrowhead today with low VFR or brief MVFR conditions occurring
there.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  20
INL  80  48  80  60 /   0   0   0  40
BRD  78  52  79  60 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  78  46  81  57 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-018-
     019-026-035-037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



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