Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310537 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THESE CLOUDS WERE SEEN OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WE WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BUT FEW OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON EWD INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE MN
AND NRN WI...AND ALLOW SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE COLD AIR MASS THAT MOVED IN SATURDAY MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-1 TO +2 DEG C. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND UPPER 20S.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND IN THE
FAVORABLE INLAND LOCATIONS OF NW WI. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
THE PRESENCE OF EAST WINDS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
THROUGH NRN WI. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO KEEP THE WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLED FROM
THE SFC. IF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE
INVERSION TEMPS WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY A STRONG
E/NE WIND WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE AND INLAND ON THE COOL SIDE. TEMPERATURES
INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKE WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AND COOL...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE EXPANDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO COVER MOST OF OUR CWA...AND HAVE ALSO DROPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND AREAS OF NW WI...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THEY MAY BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL TOO MUCH.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE SHAPING UP TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL POP...ESPECIALLY WEST ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THE DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
OVER THAT PERIOD AS WELL. THE NAM DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF TOWARD
THAT AREA...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT SO MUCH. THE GEM SEEMS TO BE
THE COMPLETE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. AS
THE STRONG AND VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATES TO THE
EASTERN LAKES BY MIDWEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MOISTURE WORK ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE CWA. LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION FROM MID WEEK INTO SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF SPECIFIC BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE EASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  60  43  67 /   0   0   0  10
INL  32  68  47  73 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  40  68  50  71 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  34  68  43  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  31  61  41  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     007>009.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ006.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...CLC





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