Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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232
FXUS63 KDLH 200932
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
432 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Main concerns during the short-term are high temperatures today
and thunderstorms returning to the Northland on Saturday.

Southerly return flow is forecast across the Northland today
ahead of a developing storm system in the Rockies. Fire danger
concerns are lower today thanks to the increasing boundary layer
moisture transport. Temperatures will trend warmer with highs in
the upper 60s in northeast Minnesota, to the middle 70s in north-
central Minnesota, to near 80 degrees in the St. Croix River
valley.

Clouds will begin filling in across the area this evening and
rain chances gradually build from the south overnight. There could
be a few rumbles of thunder during the early morning hours over
central Minnesota. Northward moisture transport continues into
Saturday with precipitable water values climbing into the 1 to 1.5
inch range. The 20.00Z GFS features PW of 1.4 inches at INL by
00Z Sunday which would be a record value for the date and time
(previous max for the day is 1.22 inches). A sharp cool front will
move into Minnesota Saturday morning and advance into the CWA by
late afternoon. Instability will be on the increase through the
day with MLCAPE of 500-1250 J/kg forecast across our south by late
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30 to 35 knots will be sufficient
for organized convection and the SPC has highlighted the St. Croix
River valley and much of northwest Wisconsin in a Marginal Risk
of severe storms. A few storms could produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms will have ample moisture for
locally heavy rainfall, as well. We`ve had a decent stretch of dry
weather, but soil moisture analysis indicates much of the recent
rain remains in place, which may lead to very localized ponding of
water in low-lying locales. Will need to watch for autumn leaves
blocking storm drains which could cause localized flooding issues.
With the increase in cloud cover, highs will be a bit cooler, but
still above average for late October with readings in the low to
upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Active start to the long term with a front exiting the region
which was covered well in the short term discussion, but the
remnants will linger into the overnight hours on Saturday. Most
stronger storms should be dissipating, but there is a small chance
an isolated cell may still be churning.

A brief break Sunday, but then another wave from a low in western
Ontario circles around and brings a threat for rain Sunday night
into Monday. Upper trough to closed upper low lingers in the area
for unsettled weather through Wednesday. Temperatures do take a
dive on Tuesday switching any lingering showers to snow showers.
Thursday should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The main concern
is with winds, with strong southwest winds aloft in the 40-45knot
range as depicted on radar wind profiles. These winds will
continue until 09-11z in the morning, so have included LLWS groups
in the TAF forecast. Surface winds increase in the 15z-18z time
range to 10- 15kts with gusts of 15-25kts, with the strongest
gusts near KBRD. These strong winds aloft increase once again
around 03z, and have included LLWS for the terminals beginning at
03z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  56  64  46 /   0  40 100  80
INL  74  58  66  42 /   0  40  80  60
BRD  73  60  65  42 /  10  50 100  60
HYR  75  58  67  47 /   0  30  70  80
ASX  77  58  70  50 /   0  30  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...LE



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