Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180759
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
259 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The closed upper low was located in west central Wisconsin at 07Z
with the surface low center vertically stacked underneath the upper
low. Pieces of embedded energy will continue to rotate around the
low as it moves northeastward today. Last band of heavy rain was
affecting much of northwest Wisconsin at 0715Z. Models are in good
agreement with the handling of this system. The closed upper low
opens into a trof by 12Z as the surface low center becomes elongated
over Lake Michigan by mid morning. Some areas of rain will still
affect northwest Wisconsin through mid morning before diminishing.
Some light rain will also occur along the north shore of Lake
Superior through the early morning. The rain will completely end by
18Z over northwest Wisconsin as the upper trof, and whats left of
the surface low center, move off to the east. A very dry airmass
follows behind this system and covers the forecast area by late
afternoon. The sky will clear through the day from northwest to
southeast. Max temps should reach the upper 50s over the western
third of the region, with upper 40s in north central Wisconsin.

Flood potential has diminished as the highest rain fall rates,
occurring now over a portion of northwest Wisconsin, will end by
12Z. After coordination with neighbors and no reports of flooding
per law enforcement, except in the Glidden area, have ended the
flash flood watch.

Surface and upper level ridging covers the area tonight. With a
clear sky and lighter wind, low temperatures will be in the lower to
middle 30s. Have added frost to much of the forecast area. Will hold
off on headlines for now as there is some question on wind speed
which will affect minimum temps as well as frost potential.

The aforementioned ridging prevails Friday morning. By afternoon,
the upper ridging is pushed off to the northeast as the next closed
upper low, currently over northern Utah, reaches western Nebraska
late. Model differences begin to show with the handling of embedded
impulses lifting northward from the low into the region. Used a
blend which results in small pops over southern Crow Wing county in
the afternoon. Max temps will reach the lower 60s over the
Borderland, with 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

A longwave trough will extend from northern portions of
Alberta/Saskatchewan into the southwest CONUS Friday evening. This
trough will then move east over the weekend with a northern
shortwave moving south over the Northland keeping the upper level
trough over the Northland into early next week before it finally
shifts east midweek. More rain will occur Friday night through
Tuesday with chances highest Saturday and Saturday night.

Another surface low pressure system will move from the Southern
Plains Friday evening into Iowa by 18Z Saturday, then to far western
Lake Superior by 12Z Sunday before exiting the area later Sunday
night into Monday morning. Rain will develop from south to north
Friday night into Saturday with rain likely for most areas Saturday
into Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts of a 0.50 inches to 1.50
inches will be possible. It will be a cool day Saturday with highs
from the mid forties to lower fifties and winds will be off Lake
Superior and be gusty. The rain will diminish Saturday night into
Sunday and temperatures will be a bit warmer Sunday, mostly in the
fifties.

We have periodic chances for showers Sunday night into Tuesday with
the upper trough still over the area along with cyclonic flow to the
surface. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will range from the
mid fifties to mid sixties.

As the upper trough exits Wednesday, dry surface low pressure will
develop over the Northland with high temperatures from the mid
fifties to mid sixties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail overnight with rapidly improving
conditions from west to east Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings and
MVFR visibility due to a combination of fog and rain will continue
overnight, with rapid improvement to VFR from west to east Thursday
morning. Strong northeast winds continue overnight with gusts up to
35 knots possible, becoming weaker towards daybreak Thursday and
generally less than 10 knots after 18Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  33  52  35 /  40   0  10  30
INL  55  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  59  36  57  39 /   0   0  10  40
HYR  51  31  57  39 /  60   0  10  40
ASX  48  31  51  35 /  80   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ121-146>148.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde/JJM



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