Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 080243
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
943 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

A BUSY EVENING AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND. EARLIER WE DID HAVE HAIL ALMOST THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO HAD SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH NECESSITATED AN URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG ACROSS NW WI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF BREAK LATE TUE MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TUE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY AS
WELL.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ROTATE A COUPLE
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
MAIN SFC LOW OVER S-CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST AND
LEAVE A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A S/W
DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT...STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND A MU CAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG HAVE ALLOW SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY THE TIME THE SUN
BEGINS TO SET...THE BL WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND ALLOW MUCH OF
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOCUS THE PRECIP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SFC
TROUGH. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI. COULD SEE UP TO A HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE EARLY TUE MORNING AND THROUGH
LATE IN THE MORNING. THE SFC INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTERACT WITH A
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR
WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S...WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DRY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE IN THE COOL NNW FLOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE A COOL AND SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO PUMP
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT PCPN IN NE MINNESOTA
THURSDAY...BUT I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
PROMINENT FEATURE THAT WOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE WEEKEND DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER WEST AND COOL NW
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A LOW CHANCES OF DIURNAL
HEATING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR
SUNDAY...THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER AT DROPPING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN CANADA SOUTH TO NW ONTARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A
MUCH STRONG COLD FRONT AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT OCCASIONALLY THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  70  51  72 /  60  50  10   0
INL  56  67  47  72 /  40  40  20   0
BRD  60  76  52  76 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  56  73  50  73 /  60  40  20   0
ASX  51  67  50  70 /  60  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






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