Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 232339
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

AT 330 PM...THERE WAS A DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IN WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN, IT
WAS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S AT
GRAND MARAIS AIRPORT AND 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
CWA...NAMELY FROM WALKER INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. WEBCAM
IMAGES IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SNOW INDICATE A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE SW CWA. MOST OF THE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INDICATE THAT IT
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE 4 KM NMM WRF...WHICH HANGS ON TO IT A BIT LONGER
AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA. MAY HAVE TO DO SOME TOUCH UPS TO
THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SPOTS GETTING A QUICK
HALF INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW REAL QUICK.

SKY COVER IS ALSO A QUESTION FOR TONIGHT...AS WE MAY SEE MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NE 1/2 OF THE CWA BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BREAK UP QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
NORTHERN LOW WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER...OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THROUGH
THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AND TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE TUESDAY
EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE AREA WITH RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. LEFT OUT THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
ONLY A VERY BRIEF PERIOD FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS IN FUTURE SHIFTS TO PINPOINT ANY PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUES. THE RAIN SNOW MIX WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM ONE TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES...FAVORING THE ARROWHEAD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. ONCE AGAIN...THERE WILL
BE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES INITIALLY ON SATURDAY. WENT WITH A RAIN
SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 30S THROUGH FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

A VORT MAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
AND MVFR CEILINGS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CORRIDOR
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER IN THE KBRD/KINL
AND POSSIBLY KHIB/KDLH AREAS THROUGH DAY BREAK. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BRING LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  43  30  38 /  10   0  90  80
INL  23  46  31  35 /  10   0  40  50
BRD  27  45  31  37 /  10  10  90  60
HYR  21  47  30  39 /  10   0 100  80
ASX  22  47  31  37 /  10   0  90  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...GRANING





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