Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 040530
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS
BEFORE THEY SHOULD EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. MLCAPE
VALUES WERE 1000-1500J/KG AS OF 00Z SPC MESOANALYSIS BUT CAPE WAS
ONLY AROUND 30 KT. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP...GAIN
STRENGTH TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS EVENING DUE TO
THIS COMBO OF SHEAR/CAPE.

EARLIER THIS EVENING WE ADDED SOME SMOKE TO THE GRIDS AS SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
WHILE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 500 TO 1500 J/KG...THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

A LAYER OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES UPSTREAM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE
TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT THE SMOKE WILL
HELP INSULATE AREAS. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE...BUT MAY
NEED TO REEVALUATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE THE SMOKE WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. THE SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR WHERE THERE COULD BE THE SMOKE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF PCPN DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP AN H850 LOW WITH
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES...KOOCH
COUNTY INTO THE CHIPPEWA NATL FOREST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS CAPE
VALUES FALL TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE
HEAT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY
FEELING CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE NORTHLAND AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. REDUCED VSBYS IN
FOG OR SMOKE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT
WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY...BUT BE OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CLOSE TO THE LAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  81  62  73 /   0  20  80  60
INL  61  81  59  72 /  20  80  70  30
BRD  63  85  63  76 /  10  70  80  50
HYR  60  82  66  74 /  10  10  70  80
ASX  56  83  64  73 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE


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