Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 292014
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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