Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270558
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHIELD OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. VRF CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN... AS KHYR WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
UNTIL 12Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG AND
LOWERING VIS AT KDLH/KHIB UNTIL 12Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  66  50  65 /  20  40  60  50
INL  51  70  49  62 /  20  70  60  20
BRD  57  78  58  68 /  10  50  70  40
HYR  52  80  59  70 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  46  69  52  68 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART






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