Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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658
FXUS63 KDLH 272000
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
300 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

High pressure builds in from the north tonight with easterly winds
developing as the low producing today`s rain drifts off the south.
As the rain exits early this evening skies should gradually clear
from north to south, with areas of fog developing where skies clear
out - mainly across the Iron Range into the MN Arrowhead though a
chance for fog exists almost everywhere across the Northland.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and seasonable, except a bit cooler
along the Lake Superior shoreline due to the easterly winds where
highs will be limited to the 60s. Afternoon clouds may produce a
brief shower due to steep low level lapse rates combined with the
cooler air moving in aloft, but at this point think it will be just
virga or a brief sprinkle given lack of large-scale forcing and
drier air moving in at low levels.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Quiet start to the extended with high pressure building into
the region. This will keep the Northland dry, with southerly flow
returning late on Friday and continuing through the weekend as the
high moves over the central Great Lakes. This will bring mild
temperatures through the weekend with highs in the 70s and low 80s.
Low temperatures will be in the 50s. Little moisture is available
until late on Sunday when a more substantial shortwave moves into
central North Dakota. This may bring a few showers and storms to far
western areas late.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase early next week
and heading into the middle of the week as warm air advection and
increasing moisture combine with the lift of a trough moving in from
the Pacific Northwest. Any storms that occur Monday night into
Tuesday night have the potential to produce heavy rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered showers were still present present this afternoon due to
a cold front and a shortwave aloft moving through. This has
brought conditions anywhere from VFR to IFR or lower in the
heavier showers. Generally kept conditions VFR with some
visibility reduction due to showers. Still have instability across
the area with anywhere from 250 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE per the
latest SPC mesoanalysis, which is confined to KDLH/KBRD and KHYR.
Think these sites have the best chance of a thunderstorm this
afternoon, but unsure how widespread convection will be so for now
left in as VCTS.

High pressure will build in from the north pushing shower activity
out of all terminals by 04Z. With light winds, clearing skies and
recent precipitation expect fog to develop at all sites except
KINL overnight as hinted at by the latest MOS guidance. After fog
dissipates around 12Z expecting all sites to return to VFR through
the rest of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  70  53  75 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  75  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  76  55  78 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  57  72  51  77 /  50  10   0  10
ASX  55  67  52  76 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144>146.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL



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