Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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773
FNUS73 KDLH 150952
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for NBWA Unit 7...WI DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
452 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 15.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly sunny skies early this morning give way to mostly cloudy
skies this afternoon. Outside of scattered sprinkles this afternoon,
the best chance of rain arrives after 1900 LT. With rain not arriving
until late this evening, relative humidity will be able to drop out to
30% with good mixing. Expect fair to good smoke dispersal in the late
morning and afternoon. Strongest wind gusts out of the east up to 12mph,
but otherwise sustained winds 6-8mph expected. Light rain tonight lasts
into Thursday. A quarter of an inch of rain is forecast by tomorrow.
There is a 20% chance of isolated non-severe thunderstorms in the vicinity
of the fire site late this evening and through Thursday morning which may
result in gusty, erratic wind gusts in this time period.

The minimum relative humidity only drops to 55-60% Thursday behind a cold
front. Winds shift from southerly in the morning to southwesterly from late
morning to early afternoon and then westerly by late afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL increasing to 6500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15100-29800 knot-ft) increasing to good
                    (38500-59700 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  63  65  67  69  70  71  70
RH..............49  43  39  37  32  31  30  33
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   9   9   11  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.0 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.1 6.5 6.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   7   8   8   9   10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100020  19  24  30  39  44  53  60

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, then rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0400, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    9 to 10 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL decreasing to 1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 15 mph shifting to the south around
                    15 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (46700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (3700-13200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.24 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....              S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     20     60     70     60
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      2
Temp............67     59     51     50     50     48
RH..............36     43     53     61     75     89
20 ft wind......E 9    E 9    NE 8   E 7    E 8    SE 10
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     13     14     18
Mix hgt (ft)....4700   600    500    500    700    900
Transport wind..SE 12  E 10   E 10   E 9    SE 10  SE 15
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100051     5      5      4      7      12

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1300, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL increasing to 2900 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 15 mph shifting to the west 13
                    to 17 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (10500-27600 knot-ft) increasing
                    to fair to good (29200-39900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.10 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     60     40     40     40     30
LAL.............2      2      2      2      1      1
Temp............48     49     53     57     61     63
RH..............93     93     92     82     73     66
20 ft wind......SE 9   S 9    S 10   SW 10  SW 10  W 10
20 ft wind gust.16     15     16     16     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1200   1400   1900   2400   2900
Transport wind..S 14   S 14   SW 15  W 16   W 17   W 15
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100011     16     19     28     38     40

$$
Forecaster...Nathan
Requested by...Kirby Dernovsek
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414216.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kirby.dernovsek@wisconsin.gov