188
FXUS64 KEPZ 301733
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1133 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Dry and warm conditions with afternoon breezes can be expected
each day through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Another day of quiet weather with afternoon breezes can be
expected today with temperatures rising a few degrees warmer
compared to yesterday. Temperatures remain warmer than average
again on Wednesday. Lee troughing will be a bit deeper on
Wednesday which will allow for breezier winds across the area that
afternoon. A pacific cool front will push into the area Thursday,
but will only drop high temperatures a few degrees. Above average
temperatures will be seen Friday and through the weekend with breezy
afternoon winds persisting.

As far as storm chances go: Saturday`s storm chances look bleak
as models have pushed surface moisture out of the area. In
addition, the shortwave that was seen last night will be too far
north and east for our area to allow for thunderstorm chances. We
truly are in the windy and dry season for the Borderland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected with SKC-FEW250. West to southwesterly
winds (200-250) will increase to around 10 knots with occasional
gusts to 20 knots. Winds subside after dark but will increase
again toward the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Warm and breezy will be the theme for much of the forecast period
through the weekend. Today will feature warm temperatures with low
end breezes during the afternoon. Low min RH values (6-12%) will
be seen areawide today and will continue through at least Sunday.
20ft winds increase tomorrow, maxing out at around 15-20MPH that
afternoon. ERC`s will largely be in the 70th-89th percentile for
much of the NM lowlands, but even drier fuels may be seen in far
west TX. With all of this being said, min RH values and fuel
moisture will certainly fit in the Red Flag criteria, but
borderline winds has prevented a Red Flag Warning. Instead, a
special weather statement has been issued to illustrate elevated
fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon for zones 110, 111, 112,
and 113. Wind speeds are expected to be a bit less in west TX
compared to NM and RFTI category should stay elevated in TX,
whereas southern NM RFTI category is showing "Near Critical".

The dry weather continues with breezy afternoon winds each day.
Somewhat elevated conditions exists Thursday and through the
weekend but only very isolated locations may be able to meet Red
Flag criteria in the upcoming days.

Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent today through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  57  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               89  55  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               86  53  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               63  43  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    86  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              77  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   86  50  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                90  50  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               81  55  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  55  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             86  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  62  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            86  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  50  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  76  48  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                74  47  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 73  45  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  79  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  49  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                86  49  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  43  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  45  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  48  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   85  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  85  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  49  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown