Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172026
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
226 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Warm temperatures, dry conditions, and light afternoon breezes can
be expected through the remainder of the work week. High
temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday will be in the middle
to upper 80s across the lowlands, likely exceeding 90 degrees for
the El Paso area. By the weekend, a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will exist for eastern portions of the forecast
area, mainly focused over eastern Hudspeth and Otero Counties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet
and warm weather expected through the remainder of the work week.
Zonal flow regime and quiet weather has settled in across the
Borderland Region. This means warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
light afternoon breezes each day through the remainder of the work
week. Afternoon high temperatures will steadily climb each
afternoon, remaining 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average. In
fact, our warmest days will be Thursday and Friday where high
temperatures will likely exceed 90 degrees for the El Paso metro.
Record high temperatures on Thursday/Friday are 94 and 95 for El
Paso, that said, it looks like we will come up short on both days.
NBM probabilities of record high temperature exceedance remain in
between 10-30 percent. However, other localities across the
forecast area like Las Cruces and Alamogordo have higher
probabilities of rivaling their record high temperatures for
Thursday and Friday.
For Friday and into the weekend, a frontal boundary will dive south
across the Great Plains and High Plains region, banking up against
the eastern slopes of the Central NM Mountains by Friday
afternoon/evening. This in tandem with an approaching upper level
shortwave will lead to increased chances (20-40 percent PoPs) of
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For now,
these low-end rain/storms chances will be limited to eastern Otero
and Hudspeth counties where the deeper moisture values will lie.
As this boundary ebbs-and-flows across Far West TX and Southern NM,
the easterly push along and just behind this boundary will lead to
gusty winds Friday evening/night and then again Saturday
evening/night, especially along the western slopes of area mountains
and desert sky islands.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC-FEW250.
Winds light and VRB, becoming 8-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots
generally out of the SW between 19-21Z
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Fire weather conditions will be LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED through the
remainder of the work week. Min RH values will remain below critical
thresholds (<15 percent) across most of the area through Friday.
However, low level winds will be light to low-end breezy through
this period, staying below critical thresholds. Smoke ventilation
rates will be Very Good through Friday.
By the weekend, portions of NMZ113, especially within the Sacramento
Mtns along with eastern Hudspeth County will see an increase in
moisture values as a pseudo dryline banks up along the central NM
mountain chains. This added moisture will lead to low-end chances
of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although probabilities are low and parameters aren`t eye popping as
of now, it`s worth mentioning dry lightning could possibly pose a
threat this weekend, especially over the Sacs. Areas along and east
of the Sacramento Mtn crest have higher probabilities (20-40%) of
seeing wetting rains if storms develop. However, areas west of the
crest where guidance has a tight dew point depression gradient could
see a rogue storm or two produce isolated instances of cloud to
ground lightning. Like I said, confidence remains LOW but something
to keep an eye on over the next few days as the dryline makes an
appearance for the first time this season. Again confidence is
LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 58 90 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 54 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 52 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 50 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 41 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 52 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 48 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 48 87 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 47 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 56 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 45 90 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 51 91 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 53 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 53 90 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 49 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 59 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 48 87 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 47 90 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 52 87 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 50 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 47 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 45 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 44 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 44 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 48 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 47 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 42 79 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 44 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 46 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 47 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 48 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 48 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 48 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 48 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 50 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers