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000
FXUS62 KFFC 231843
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

 - Mostly sunny again today with near to slightly below normal
   highs.

 - Slight chance of light showers across Central GA on Wednesday
   afternoon associated with weak front.

NW flow aloft is spreading mostly thin cirrus into the N part of GA.
Otherwise, clear skies and cool temperatures prevail this morning
with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the mid 30s in extreme NE GA to
near 50 degrees across the S portion of the County Warning Area. The
Frost Advisory for the NE corner of the area appears to be warranted.
Mostly sunny skies are forecast for today with high temperatures
mostly in the 70s (mid to upper 60s in the NE mountains).

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon may drop below 25
percent across the extreme SE and N portions of the area, but
durations again are expected to be less than 4 hours. The day shift
will monitor trends for a possible short fused Fire Danger
Statement.

A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes
and OH Valley region tonight. At the surface, a very weak cold front
will sink S into the area on Wednesday. Isolated light showers may
accompany the front as it approaches the area tonight. However,
showers will larges dissipate before making it across the N border.
There are indications that isolated showers may redevelop during
Wednesday afternoon along and just ahead of the front as it
continues to sink S across Central GA. Have included very light QPF
amounts in that area along with 15% PoPs. Instability and dynamic
support look meager, so have only included showers in the forecast.
Confidence is low that much in the way of measurable rainfall will
be realized.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Highlights:

-Slight chance for rain on Thursday, otherwise, mostly dry through
the rest of the week.

-The next opportunity for appreciable rainfall is now slated for
late in the weekend into early next week.

At the start of the long term period (Wednesday night) a weak
frontal boundary will be moving through the forecast area with
surface high pressure beginning to build across the Ohio Valley.
Thursday through Friday, the boundary will begin to lift back north
and while guidance largely keeps the forecast area dry would not be
surprised if some light rain occurs across portions of north GA in
addition to increased cloud cover. A wedge of high pressure is still
slated to develop across the northeast on Friday resulting in cooler
conditions beneath it. Going into the weekend, long term guidance
depicts two system developing east of the Rockies -- the latter of
the two looking to bring more beneficial rainfall to the forecast
area. As noted in the previous forecast the past few model runs
indicates slower timing of these two systems thus, any notable
rainfall looks to hold off until the Sunday/Monday timeframe.
Midlevel ridging shifts east covering much of the eastern CONUS
Friday into Saturday resulting in the return of southwesterly flow.
At the surface, a wedge will become more prominent across the
northeast and southerly flow continues to increase at the lowest
levels. Gradual moisture return in the way of increasing cloud cover
can be expected through the weekend. While PoPs through Sunday
remain less than 20%, depending on the track of either system any
moisture associated with it could interact with the wedge this
weekend potentially resulting in some light rain across the North.

A warming trend can be expected through the long term period for
area of Central Georgia. Cooler temperatures can be expected for
areas under the influence of the `wedge` (across parts of North GA).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow morning.
High clouds from the N and NW will continue to thin. Winds will
be light out of the SW to WSW at 5 to 10 kts. Winds transition to
northerly overnight then E Thursday morning. A brief and low
chance of light precip is possible tomorrow afternoon, though this
remains isolated at best. Cigs drop to bkn025 tomorrow afternoon
from ATL southward towards MCN. Elsewhere expect a shallow
afternoon cu deck around 3 to 5 kft.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence precipitation presence.
High all other
elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          50  77  50  77 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         52  76  54  77 /   0  20  10  10
Blairsville     47  69  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    48  74  48  78 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus        51  80  58  82 /   0   0   0  20
Gainesville     52  74  51  76 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           49  80  57  82 /   0   0  10  10
Rome            49  74  48  78 /   0  10   0  10
Peachtree City  50  78  53  80 /   0  20  20  10
Vidalia         51  81  60  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SM