312
FXUS62 KFFC 020200 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1000 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Only minor adjustments have been made to T, Td, and RH for the
next several hours. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Patchy
fog will be posssible across portions of east-central Georgia
overnight into early tomorrow (Thursday) morning, where relative
humidity will near/reach 100%. That said, passing cirrus and
lingering mid-level cloud cover could hinder radiational cooling.

Martin


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

An upper ridge will build over the area tonight and Thursday,
with temperatures continuing to climb. The cumulus field over the
area today is thickest across the S half of the area, with clear
skies across the NE. Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the
mid to upper 70s across the N mountains to the mid 80s across
parts of the S County Warning Area.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s
across the N to the lower 60s across the S. Skies will be mostly
clear. Some fog development is possible late tonight, but mainly
near and SE of Dublin.

High temperatures on Thursday will be quite warm, with most
locations away from the mountains in the upper 80s to near 90. The
highest elevations in the N should remain in the mid to upper
70s. The weather will be mostly dry, although there is a slight
chance of a late day thunderstorm near Americus.

Low temperatures Thursday night will be warmer than preceding
nights, ranging from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower to
mid 60s elsewhere. Showers and a few thunderstorms may make it
into the NW corner of the state prior to daybreak.

SEC


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Pattern shift expected through extended period, with generally
  wetter weather.

Short-term ridge loses its dominance over the region by late week
with an approaching shortwave. Warm weekly temperatures will
moderate slightly (still close to 5 degrees above normal) as
moisture influx and increased precip activity keep highs a touch
lower. Although rain chances begin to rise over north Georgia
during the predawn hours on Friday, best coverage and intensity
will be correlated with maximum daytime heating Friday, and extend
into Saturday. Rainfall amounts appear to be limited to a half
inch or less for the majority of the area, though east central
Georgia could see totals approach 1 inch. At this time, just
general thunder is expected with instability just not enough to
support significant development in the isolated to scattered
activity.

In the wake of the shortwave, quasi-zonal flow keeps sufficient
moisture over the region to produce heating-driven afternoon
convection each afternoon through the extended period (especially
Sunday and Monday). This shift will definitely feel more summer-
like as warm temperatures resume and highest coverage and storm
intensity is expected in the afternoon and evening. By midweek,
remaining afternoon and evening convection chances will be highest
(though chance PoPs at best) over north Georgia.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The daytime Cu field is diminishing at the time of this writing.
SKC is expected overnight with the exception of some thin cirrus.
Patchy fog is possible mainly across portions of east-central
Georgia, but is not expected to have impacts on any TAF sites.
Winds have become light/VRB to even calm, and will stay that way
overnight into early tomorrow (Thursday) morning. Winds will be
ESE to SSE at 5-10 kts tomorrow afternoon. A daytime Cu field at
050-060 is expected to develop again tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  87  62  82 /   0   0   0  30
Atlanta         61  87  66  81 /   0   0  10  40
Blairsville     55  82  59  75 /   0   0  10  60
Cartersville    56  88  64  83 /   0   0  10  50
Columbus        63  90  66  86 /   0  10  10  20
Gainesville     60  85  63  80 /   0   0   0  50
Macon           60  88  65  85 /   0  10   0  30
Rome            56  88  64  81 /   0   0  20  50
Peachtree City  58  88  64  83 /   0   0  10  30
Vidalia         64  89  65  88 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Martin