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000
FXUS62 KFFC 200548
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
148 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIP TO AN END AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...FLOODING CONTINUES WITH AREAL FLOOD
AND RIVER WARNINGS REPLACING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FROM EARLIER.
THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL RIVERS TO GO INTO FLOOD BUT NOTHING
TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF FLOOD WATCH AND HAVE LET IT EXPIRE.
UPDATE WILL INCLUDE TRIMMING POPS FURTHER BUT REMAINING ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO KEEP THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN TN/NORTH
GA IS REINFORCING THE FORECAST BY THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OT THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF GA THROUGH 00Z. THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH 00Z. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY EXIT FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST/EAST GA WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER AL/GA WHICH SHOULD ALSO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ENDING THE PRECIP BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MAV/MET
TEMPS LOOKING ALRIGHT...PERHAPS ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT AND HAVE
RAISE THEM A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS.

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY CAD PROGGED TO DEVELOP. 12Z RUNS OF
GFS AND ECMWF STILL SIMILAR FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
VERY LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME
EARLY FRIDAY. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A LITTLE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM AND ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY THERE AS
WELL...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE SE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHED THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST
ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN GA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUES TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCT RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY PERSISTENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... REMAINS A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH CIGS THE BIG
QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTY IS GREAT WITH THE GUIDANCE. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC PROJECTIONS OF IFR DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT ATL BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. BETTER CHANCE OF LOWER VSBY AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT AHN AND
MCN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE PREVALENT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DECK SCATTERING OUT BY MID AFTERNOON.

//ATL
CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW ON CIGS.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  65  86  67 /  10  10  30  20
ATLANTA         86  67  85  69 /  10  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     83  60  82  64 /  10  10  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  87  67 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBUS        89  67  89  71 /  10  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     83  65  83  67 /  10  10  40  20
MACON           87  65  88  68 /  20  20  20  10
ROME            88  64  87  68 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  86  65  86  66 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         88  67  87  70 /  50  40  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE