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000
FXUS62 KFFC 121133 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
733 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 405 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013/
ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE POP
FORECAST FOR TODAY. GFS SHOWS A STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND BRINGS IT INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MID MORNING. GFS
ISNT GENERATING MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP WITH IT THOUGH ACROSS THE
CWA. NAM SHOWS SOME REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE BUT IS WEAKER AND
GENERALLY FURTHER EAST. EVEN HARDER TO PICK OUT THE FEATURE IN THE
ECMWF. DESPITE THIS THOUGH...ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE HIGHEST IN TERMS
OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY. HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
SOME ACTIVITY IN NORTH GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. FOR THE
FORECAST TRIED TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE AND HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. LEE SIDE TROUGH APPEARS
IT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IF SOMETHING
WERE TO DEVELOP...THINK IT SHOULD BE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SO KEPT
MENTION OF POPS OUT OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

THURSDAY IS THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA BY THE EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS SHOWING ML CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. LL SHEAR IS NON-ZERO WITH
AROUND 20KTS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE INSTABILITY...A
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WIND AND HAIL.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH AHN AND ATL SAW THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY FOR THE YEAR
YESTERDAY AND ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MOST PLACES WILL HAVE TIME AHEAD OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE 90S AGAIN. SOME OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL REACH
HEAT INDICES OF 100-102 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH FALLS SHORT OF A HEAT
ADVISORY /105 DEGREES OR GREATER HEAT INDICES FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE
DAYS/...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND FOLKS SHOULD KEEP THIS IN MIND
WHEN WORKING OUTSIDE AS ITS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SEASON SO FAR.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 405 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO CENTRAL GA AND MOVING S STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED. THE
FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST...THE NAM NEXT AND THE EUROPEAN THE SLOWEST.
PRECIP CHANCES MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE ENDED FOR FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
EUROPEAN HOLDS ONTO CHANCES OVER CENTRAL GA. SATURDAY IS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY HELPS FOR HOLD ANY
CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE AREA BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE. SUNDAY APPEARS ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHERE YOU COULD GO EITHER WAY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NW
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL JUST HOLD
ONTO 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NW. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHORT WAVES TO ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GET INTO N GA FOR WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY.
HAVE A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND MODELS
DIFFER ON IF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO GEORGIA. FOR NOW...THINKING
IS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. OF ALL THE SITES THOUGH...AHN AGAIN WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL SHOULD SEE NW
WINDS...HOWEVER ONE MODEL IS PICKING UP AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE
AND THUS THE REASON FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ISOLD CONVECTION STAYING OUT OF THE
TERMINAL.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  70  94  67 /  20  10  50  20
ATLANTA         92  74  92  68 /  10  10  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  67  86  59 /  20  20  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  70  93  65 /  10  10  50  20
COLUMBUS        95  75  96  73 /  10  10  20  40
GAINESVILLE     91  72  91  66 /  20  20  50  20
MACON           95  71  96  69 /  10  10  20  40
ROME            94  70  92  66 /  20  10  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  92  69  93  67 /  10  10  50  30
VIDALIA         96  75  97  73 /  10   5  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...11