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000
FXUS62 KFFC 121720
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

UPDATE...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST A
FEW CU. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE GUSTY...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...JUST TWEAKED SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...IS MOVING OFF THE
GA COAST THIS MORNING. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME IS JUST SOUTH OF AN AHN TO CSG LINE AND IS
STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS STILL
BACK ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO NW GA BY
12Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE STATE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WILL SEE SOME
UPPER 30S ACROSS EXTREME N GA. THESE LOW TEMPS MAY EVEN BREACH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE STATE.

01

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY DRY
AIR...PWS LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON NIGHT WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO
A FEW RECORD LOWS ESPECIALLY IN THE MCN AREA. A RAPID WARM-UP IS
STILL EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE UP BETTER IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP WITH A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION OVER THE OH VALLEY THU
THROUGH SAT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS EACH DAY. A MORE TYPICAL LATE
SPRING PATTERN.

16

FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
EXPECTED RHS BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST 4 HOURS.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR MONDAY 05-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      92 2000     64 1963     69 1933     38 1960
                1935        1954
                1933
   KATL      90 1956     62 1963     70 1933     42 1960
                1911        1882        1905
                1905
   KCSG      92 2000     70 1971     73 2000     41 1960
                1967        1960
                1957
   KMCN      97 2000     64 1927     70 1933     42 1960

RECORDS FOR TUESDAY 05-14

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      94 1933     54 1954     69 1933     40 1917
   KATL      91 1881     56 1954     72 1995     41 1917
                                        1905
   KCSG      94 1998     66 1954     74 1995     43 1960
                1967
   KMCN      96 1967     62 1954     73 1905     42 1997

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NW...AND 15 TO 20KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIN CIRRUS AND SCT DIURNAL CU THE ONLY
CLOUDS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         68  46  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     62  39  65  39 /   5   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    67  39  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  46  75  50 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  44  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  42  73  43 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            67  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  40  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         82  50  77  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL