961
FXUS62 KFFC 040207 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1007 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are underway
generally along and north of I-20. A few storms were strong
earlier this afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and small
hail. Analyzed MUCAPE ranges from 500-1500 J/kg, so isolated
thunderstorms will remain a possibility for the next few hours.
The shortwave trough currently over MS and AL will draw closer
overnight with increasing coverage of showers across the forecast
area. Rumbles of thunder will be possible. Patchy fog will be
possible as well amid the humid airmass and light to calm winds.

Martin


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

At a glance:

    - Multiple waves of precipitation through the weekend

    - Brief reprieve from unseasonably warm temperatures Saturday
      north of I-20

At the surface, conditions are relatively benign, with the
western fringes of surface high pressure still in place across the
Southeast. The primary catalyst for our rather dreary weekend
ahead will be a series of shortwaves traversing mid-level flow
aloft, the strongest of which looks to move through Saturday
afternoon.

Development through this afternoon is likely to be patchy and
summer-like, with slight chance to low-end chances (20-40%) for
showers and thunderstorms. Saturday, with the arrival of better
(but meager) forcing and a slug of mid-level moisture, rain
chances are likely to be more widespread and weakly organized,
with fewer breaks in between individual waves.

For both days, MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-1500 J/kg
range, but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude
meaningful chances for severe weather. That said, PWATs creeping
north of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th
percentile for early May per the SPC`s sounding climatology. Any
storms that form are likely to be slow-moving to stationary, and
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, ponding on
roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding.

Highs today will continue the trend of being several degrees
above average, in the upper 70s to 80s, with 90 in reach across
south central Georgia. Tomorrow will be cooler north of I-20 --
highs in the 60s are not out of the question for portions of north
Georgia, though generally in the 70s to near 80 -- thanks to
greater coverage of clouds and thunderstorms. South of I-20,
expect another day with temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid
80s.

96


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

As the extended period picks up on Sunday morning, a shortwave
disturbance will be positioned over the ArkLaTex. This disturbance
will move northeastward over the course of the day on Sunday and
into Monday, which will force continued scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The coverage
of thunderstorms will moreover be diurnally enhanced in the
afternoon hours each day. The combination of forcing ahead of the
shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water values
ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for likely PoPs
across the majority of north and central Georgia each afternoon,
with some activity lingering into the evening each day. Low-level
wind shear and dynamic support appears that it will be located
nearest to the axis of the shortwave, which will pass north of the
forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat is not
anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong and
capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.

A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday
with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures
will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple
of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north
Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These
temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological
normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High
Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging
strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure
gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be
under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary will advance slowly southward from the lower Midwest
into the Tennessee River Valley. A series of disturbances
traversing the upper level flow is anticipated to overrun the
front, which will help organize thunderstorms across northern
portions of Georgia. With a warm and unstable airmass across much
of the Southeast and increased deep- layer bulk shear ahead of the
advancing front, the potential for severe weather on Thursday
will need to be monitored as the forecast evolves.

King


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated SH and TS are underway across north and central GA. Have
a TEMPO for MCN for TS given colliding outflow boundaries nearby.
Will need to watch the SH west of ATL for lightning. CIGs will
lower to MVFR/IFR and VIS to MVFR after ~09z through late tomorrow
(Saturday) morning, during which time scattered SH are expected.
MVFR/low-VFR conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon and early
evening with scattered TS. Winds will be SE to SW at 3-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on CIG/VIS evolution and SH/TS timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  79  62  83 /  50  70  50  60
Atlanta         65  81  64  83 /  60  70  40  60
Blairsville     60  74  59  78 /  60  70  50  80
Cartersville    63  81  62  83 /  60  60  40  60
Columbus        66  87  65  88 /  50  40  30  50
Gainesville     64  78  64  81 /  60  70  50  70
Macon           66  83  64  85 /  50  60  40  60
Rome            64  82  62  85 /  60  60  40  70
Peachtree City  64  83  62  84 /  60  70  30  60
Vidalia         68  83  66  87 /  40  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Martin