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000
FXUS62 KFFC 241743 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1017 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ARE HOLDING IN PLACE AND HAVE
DRIFTED SOUTH INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IN THE
GRIDS...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES THIS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

11

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 408 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
EXITING FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. FLOW IS TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHWEST ALOFT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG TODAY...BUT
THOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS...SEE BELOW
FOR MORE ON THAT. STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BY A GOOD 6-8 DEGREES ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE
START TO A VERY PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT A CUTOFF LOW
WILL FORM OVER THE NEW JERSEY AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER
AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ALONG WITH THE NAM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR LACK OF IMPACTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
BIG STORY WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH WILL FLIRT
WITH OR POSSIBLY DROP BELOW RECORD LOWS. CURRENT RECORD FOR MCN IS
49 AND WE HAVE 48 FORECAST. OTHER SITES LOOK TO BE JUST ABOVE BUT
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DECREASE SOME ON SATURDAY
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ALL EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES /WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY
AS THE CAA FINALLY GETS DOWN THERE/...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AND OVERALL A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 408 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GEORGIA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEAST THAT MAY AFFECT MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA.
HOWEVER IMPULSES ARE HARD TO TIME AND MODELS DIFFER IN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH EACH. FOR NOW A SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
STATE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL GIVE A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA BUT
THIS MAY ONLY MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GENERALLY MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES.


41

FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS DRIED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES DROPPING BELOW 8 PERCENT. THE REST OF
THE AREA HOVERED GENERALLY BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PERCENT. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE 15 MPH FIRE DANGER CRITERION AND SOME AREAS IN
NORTHEAST GEORGIA MAY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT RH. RATHER THAN GETTING
FANCY WITH TRYING TO PICK AND CHOOSE COUNTIES...FEEL IT IS BEST TO
JUST ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY...FUELS SHOULD DRY FURTHER AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY. DURATION OF RH
VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT ON SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
REEVALUATED IN THE EVENT A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED.

TDP

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 05-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      96 1912     65 1966     71 1998     42 1931
   KATL      95 1996     60 1895     72 2000     45 1892
   KCSG      97 1996     73 1977     74 1996     51 1954
   KMCN      97 1960     65 1899     73 2000     46 1931

RECORDS FOR 05-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1926     65 1979     71 2004     46 1979
                            1956
   KATL      93 1960     63 1895     72 2004     46 1979
                1953                    1953
   KCSG      95 2012     71 1979     75 2000     51 1979
                2011        1956
                1953
   KMCN      98 1953     65 1923     74 2000     49 1979


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE FEW050
CLOUDS IN THE ATL METRO AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT TWO
HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE TAF IS THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFTS
AND AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE IN
TERMS OF TIMING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
WIND SHIFTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         76  51  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  41  74  47 /  10   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    74  44  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        83  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  49  76  53 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           82  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            75  45  78  46 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....37
AVIATION...11