Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252337
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued winter impacts across the southern Red River Valley
  and west central Minnesota.

- Sharp cut off between significant accumulations and very
  little snow, with snow to the south and east and not much to
  the north and west. This cut off is stretching from the Fargo
  metro area up towards Lake of the Woods.

- Falling snow tapering off tomorrow, but gusty north winds
  will bring occasional whiteout conditions in areas that did
  get snow, along with lingering hazardous travel conditions as
  snow blows over roads, melts, and refreezes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Visibilities across the area continue to be affected by light
snow and flurries. Dewpoints at GFK have increased suddenly,
making flurries actually want to stick. Not expecting more than
a dusting as this area of snow continues to weaken over us. Snow
will continue in the southern Red River Valley and west central
Minnesota into tonight. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Large upper trough with several embedded waves over the central
CONUS will continue to bring winter impacts to the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the rest of today into Tuesday.
Currently, deformation zone forcing coupled with mid level
frontogenetical forcing are creating snow bands across southeast
North Dakota into west-central and northwest Minnesota. This
will contribute to additional snowfall accumulations between 2-6
inches as well as moderate to briefly heavy snow rates, from
the far southern Valley into northwest Minnesota near Lake of
the Woods region.

Gusty winds to 40 mph within these snow bands are helping reduce
visibility to the half and quarter mile visibility thresholds,
and will continue to do so underneath snow bands. While
confidence has increased in location of remaining snow, there is
perhaps some indications that frontogenetical forcing lingers
over the Fargo-metro area into early this evening, which may
aid in locally higher amounts, in addition to continued
significant reductions in visibility.

Reported icy roadways from accumulating snow and refreezing onto
roadways in the southern Valley into west-central Minnesota are
further exacerbating impacts, and lends confidence in
continuing the Winter Storm Warning here.

Dry air at the surface continues to undercut snow within the
northern and central Valley, and will likely continue to do so
significantly limiting any snow accumulation.

Getting into Tuesday, cold air advection increase over the area
as the mid level wave organizes into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Winds turn north-northwesterly, favoring a Valley enhancement.
This will aid in sustained winds around 30-35 mph, with gusts to
45 mph. These winds over freshly fallen snow will contribute to
blowing snow impacts tonight through Tuesday morning, including
the expectation of occasional whiteout conditions in open
country within the southern Red River Valley.

There is still room for winds to sustain themselves slightly
higher than forecast, leaving around a 20% chance for occasional
whiteout conditions to become more persistent resulting in
blizzard conditions for Tuesday morning.

Another impactful aspect perhaps not talked about for tomorrow
is the potential for drifting to lead to icy conditions from
blow ice within open areas that have received fresh snow, i.e.
southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. This will be
driven by air temperatures remaining below freezing while
pavement temperatures approach or exceed the freezing mark,
along with gusty winds throughout the day. Prepare for lingering
hazardous travel conditions to last throughout the day into
early evening Tuesday in these areas.

Looking ahead, there is one or two progressive clipper-like
systems to move through the Northern Plains late this week into
the weekend. As of now, winter impacts are possible (30%)
from accumulating wintry precipitation, however the chance for
warning-type impacts are very low, less than 10%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

SN will lower visibilities at FAR, BJI, and possibly TVF and GFK
as well. Ceilings will stay in IFR and MVFR territory at all
sites through tonight except DVL, where things have started to
clear out. Northerly winds will remain gusty through the
overnight hours, and increase into Tuesday morning, further
reducing visibilities.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ030-038.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ039-049-052-
     053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-002.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ003-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ005-008-
     013>015.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ016-022-
     023-027-028-030-031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...AH


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