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000
FXUS63 KFGF 201509
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1009 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Need to monitor relative humidity values this afternoon and
  Sunday afternoon but RH values less than 25 percent in
  Minnesota forecast area. Sunday has highest chance of this (70
  percent).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Lots of sunshine to start out the day. The main question is
whether it will last. 500mb temperatures are still very cold
across the FA and convective temperatures are in the 30s.
Already seeming cumulus increasing in areas east of the Red
River Valley. Went ahead and bumped up sky cover amounts for the
rest of the morning in this area, but will wait to see what
happens in the next few hours before adjusting anything beyond
that. Otherwise, northwest winds are already gusting, so a
breezy afternoon is still on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clouds continue to clear southward with lingering clouds at 1130
UTC from Baudette to Bagley to Detroit Lakes to Forman ND.
Clouds will clear rest of the forecast area by 15z. Upstream
shows some patchy cirrus but otherwise sunny.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clearing of the clouds is working south-southeast steadily early
this morning and clearing will continue to progress thru mid
morning with all areas anticipated to see the lower clouds out
of the area. There is some patchy high and mid clouds behind the
clearing. Upstream in clear area in central Saskatchewan Friday
there was no CU as airmass is drying as it clears. So will stick
with idea of limited sky cover for midday and afternoon and into
Sunday as well. NW winds will remain breezy, esp in E ND, with
winds 15-25 mph today. Drier airmass moving in will bring in dew
pts in the mid teens to low 20s, and with highs mid 40s to
around 50 look for minimum RH values of 28-35 percent across the
area. Using a NBM/Conshort blend for dew pts yield the 28-33
percent lowest RH values in NW/WC MN not quite low enough for
SPS for near critical fire weather conditions. Per MIFC need min
RH at or below 25 pct.

Sunday with warmer temps (about 10 degrees warmer) RH values do
lower into the low 20s. Winds are west and less mostly 10-15
mph. But SPS for near critical fire weather may be needed on
later shifts for Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday rain chances have lowered from 24 hours ago with
trends in the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles to have progressive
500 mb low move into southern Saskatchewan Monday with a 850 mb
trough/sfc trough extending southeast from it moving into MN.
850 mb moisture return is more focused to our east/southeast and
drier 850 mb winds will be over the area ahead of the upper low,
which will drop southeast into northern MN Mon night/Tues. Some
light rain is anticipated with this system mainly north of upper
low track which favors S Manitoba into southern parts of NW
Ontario and far northern fcst area. Amounts of rain forecast
from WPC are less as well with NBM 4.1 probs for more than 0.25
inch 10 pct in the far north fcst area to less than 5 percent
south.


Thu-Fri will see next system bringing chances for rain to the
area. Ensembles indicate GEFS stronger with system and taking a
more organized upper low and surface low northeast toward the
western Great Lakes vs other models which indicate a bit less
amplified pattern and slightly weaker system. NBM 4.1 probs for
more than 0.25 inch are 40-50 percent in west central MN to
20-30 percent northwest fcst area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Lingering clouds will exit Bemidji area 13-14z, and rest of the
forecast area 15z. Otherwise scattered cirrus but otherwise
should see plenty of sunshine. Will have to watch for some
potential CU development in NW MN this aftn. NW wind today 10-20
kts turning west tonight 8-12kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle