Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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609 FXUS63 KGID 012352 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 652 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible (70% chance) this evening into tonight. The main threats with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding. - Strong to severe storms will also be possible (about a 30% chance) Friday night and again on Monday. - High temperatures across the area will mostly be in the 60s and 70s, and low temperatures will mostly be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Today and tonight... An upper trough is over most of the western half of the country with the leading edge moving over the Central Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently moving over south central and central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. Winds across the area are mostly out of the east to southeast, and temperatures are currently in the 50s and 60s. Upper lift will increase over the region later this evening into tonight as the upper trough moves overhead. A complex of storms is expected to develop and move from west to east later this evening through the overnight hours across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. This storm complex will be driven by a cold front that will move into the area tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with these storms with a low threat of localized flash flooding. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s and 50s. Thursday through Friday night... The upper trough will continue to move over the region on Thursday with gusty northwest to north winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The rain and storms may linger into early Thursday morning across eastern portions of the forecast area but the convection is expected to be out of the area by the afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will mostly be in the 60s with some lower 70s across mainly portions of north central Kansas. Low temperatures Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s with some 30s possible across northwestern portions of the forecast area. Winds will increase out of the southeast to south Friday afternoon with the upper trough still overhead. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The main portion of the upper trough will move overhead Friday night with a cold front coming into the area. This will result in increased chances (up to around 80%) of showers and thunderstorms Friday night. There is a marginal risk of severe weather with this system as indicated by the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 outlook. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 50s. Saturday through Tuesday night... A surface high will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday with clearing skies. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Winds were out of the southeast to east Saturday night with lows in the 40s. An upper trough will dig southward over the western part of the country on Sunday with winds increasing out of the southeast. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The upper trough will move closer to the area Sunday night and will move over the Central Plains on Monday. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 50s with winds continuing to be gusty out of the southeast with mostly cloudy skies. Rain and storm chances (up to around 60%) increase across the area on Monday with the increase in upper lift. Some of these storms may be strong to severe on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will mostly be in the 70s with low temperatures Monday night in the 40s to lower 50s. A broad upper trough will be over the region on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 70s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be similar to those from the previous night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Significant Weather: Thunderstorms and MVFR VSBYs, and period of MVFR to IFR CIGs overnight into Thu AM. Tonight: CIGs will hover near VFR/MVFR next few hrs, but next main concern will be arrival of tstms from the W in the 04-05Z time frame. Some gusty winds up to 30-35kt and at least small hail could accompany the first hr, or so, of convection. This activity may also result in dip to MVFR VSBYs and IFR CIGs. As tstms shift E late overnight, backing winds will probably result in more solid IFR CIGs that persist at least a couple/few hrs past sunrise. Erly winds now will become somewhat variable once tstms arrive, but generally oscillate between NE and NW through dawn. Confidence: Medium to high. Thu: Day will start off with IFR CIGs, but expect this deck to lift and scatter mid to late AM. Will likely transition to mostly clear skies for the aftn. Winds will be N to NW and on the breezy side, esp. once the sun pokes through. Latest forecast calls for sustained winds 15-20kt and gusts 25-30kt. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Thies