044
FXUS63 KGLD 060330
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
930 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from mid-
  morning Monday through early afternoon. Large hail and gusty
  winds will be the main concerns, although an isolated tornado
  cannot be entirely ruled out.

- A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect Monday for Kit Carson
  and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado, and Wallace,
  Greeley, Wichita, and Logan counties in northwestern Kansas,
  due to low relative humidity and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover continues over most of
the Goodland CWA this afternoon.  There is some clearing occurring
in the far western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in
Colorado.  Expect at least partial cloud cover to continue for most
locations for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight.

Heading into Monday, a boundary will move across the region during
the morning hours.  There is concern that thunderstorms will
initiate along the boundary around mid-morning, moving to the east
through early afternoon.  A few strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible with large hail and damaging wind being the main
concerns with any storms.  An isolated tornado cannot be entirely
ruled out.  For most areas, storms should be out of the area by
around 12pm MDT.  A few lingering showers/storms may be possible
into the early afternoon for areas along and east of a line from
McCook to Morland.

Gusty winds and low relative humidity values will be a concern from
mid-morning Monday through Monday evening.  Southeasterly winds will
shift to the west behind the boundary, with winds gusting as high as
45 MPH.  Minimum relative humidity values may fall as low as 10
percent in the afternoon.  A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Wallace, Greeley,
Wichita, and Logan counties in Kansas for Monday.  Fire weather
concerns will lessen as RH values improve around sunset.  Although
limited, a little bit of blowing dust may also be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday, the closed low that brought the boundary through the Tri-
State area, will move up into the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Winds
will remain fairly gusty.  Fire weather concerns will once again be
something to watch out for heading into the afternoon hours.
Afternoon highs will be primarily in the 70s, with a few 60s in
eastern Colorado.

Wednesday and Thursday, models show the low moving to the southeast,
back into Nebraska.  During this time, a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms may move through the northern portions of the area.
Additionally, there will be the potential for a few areas where
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions may be possible.

Friday, flow transitions to northerly to northwesterly.  The pattern
is looking a little more active as a disturbance is expected to move
into the area over the weekend, bringing a chance for some rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Not a whole lot of change from 00z taf issuance.

KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 13z
with winds from the south gusting to around 40kts. Some light
drizzle will be possible which may produce some light reductions
in visibility. From 14z-01z, southwesterly winds gusting to
40kts in the morning slowly veer to the west, gusting to similar
speeds. After 02z, west winds subside below 12kts. Blowing dust
may impact the terminal for an hour or so either side of 15z
per local blowing dust research findings using the hourly GFS
data. After about 16z, the potential narrow plume shifts south
and out of the county. For now, have left blowing dust out of
the taf given the potential plume being just south of the
terminal. If the plume does move over the terminal, research
findings show cigs in 1500-2500 ft range (sub VFR) with reduced
visibilities (also sub VFR).

KMCK...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 15z
with light drizzle possible. Winds will be from the south to
southeast, gusting up to 35kts. From 16z-18z, cigs should
improve as winds veer to the southwest, gusting up to 35kts. Its
at this time there is a possibility of thunderstorms moving
through the terminal, some of which could be severe. From
19z-02z, VFR conditions continue with winds veering to the west,
gusting up to 35kts. After 03z, winds subside below 12kts while
backing to the southwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday through
     Monday evening for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening
     for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...99