Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 041708
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1208 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS
ADVECTING WEST OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEING THE MOST FOG PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS
WAS THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE
LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE
WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORECAST.

A PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE NWP MODELS DO NOT PICK ON THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO DO A
BETTER JOB CAPTURING THIS AS THEY BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE APPEARS TO BE A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BY
SATURDAY...WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO THE SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE LOW
CHANCY POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON IF AND WHEN STORMS
ARRIVE...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE 30 POPS AND PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL LEAVE THE FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
MORNING...CLEARING DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND +20 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A SHIFT IN THE 500MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEN RETURN
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. IF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO LABOR DAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHAT WILL HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE CANADIAN/GFS PUSH FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHARE THIS SOLUTION...THUS WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...WOULD NEED
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ONCE ANY LINGERING BKN MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT IN CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT. STRONGER MIXING AT THE BOUNDARY
LEVEL SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR RANGE...HOWEVER IFR TO
LIFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP. HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE FOG
AND LOW CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AFTER THAT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN


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