Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 130217
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
817 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

DON/T PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS
EVENING. WCI VALUES EDGING DOWN IN ERN WI...AND STARTING TO GET
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS TYPICAL OF THESE SITUATIONS...WE/LL
HAVE SITES MEETING CRITERIA AT TIMES AND EASING BACK AT
OTHERS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT WINDS AND TEMPS. OVERALL...MIDNIGHT
START TIME FOR ERN WI SEEMS CLOSE ENOUGH.

VERY DRY AIR WITH SFC DWPTS ARND -20F NOW ARRIVING OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CLDS/SHSN CONTS TO SHRINK. EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND A STEADY 10 MPH WIND WILL CREATE WINDS
CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IN
VILAS COUNTY.

SATURDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO IT MAY NOT FEEL AS
COLD AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO TANK. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS TREND
AND WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS TONIGHT SHOW THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL ARRIVE A
LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. LAKE TO 850MB TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES OF 16C TO
19C NOTED TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE AN ORGANIZED LAKE BAND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WOULD MOVE
NORTH AND CLIP AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS SCENARIO. MAIN SYSTEM SNOW WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN). TOTALS MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER IN THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MILD CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD DRY ARCTIC AIR WL CONT TO SURGE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING CLDS NOW LIMITED TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ012-013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-
018-019-030-035-036.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI


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