National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGRB 150329
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A REMNANT
NOCTURNAL MCS DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER IT PRODUCED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.  AND A
COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THAT SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST TO THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA.  TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM
FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 100 DEGREES...BUT STILL PLENTY OF 70S
TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  CONVECTION ALONG EITHER BOUNDARY HAS
FAILED TO DEVELOP SO FAR.  THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS SB CIN
HAS BEEN ERODING OVER NE IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED
NOR MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS OF YET...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
40S.  WILL CONSEQUENTLY REMOVE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.  AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM FAR NW WISCONSIN ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN 850MB WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE MID TO LATE
EVENING.  DESPITE THE WARM SECTOR REACHING INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MPX AND DVN
AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE AMPLE DRY AIR BELOW 600 AND
700MB.  ONLY SB CAPES EXISTING ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY ARE OVER
SW MN AND IOWA WHERE TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER
90S.  NOT GOING TO COME CLOSE TO REACHING THOSE READINGS THIS
EVENING...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR SEEMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  IF STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER FAR N-C TO FAR NE
WISCONSIN EARLY TO MID EVENING DUE TO SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE RUC
OF THE NOSE OF THE LLJ POINTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE 850-800MB LAYER AROUND 850 J/KG AND
THAT REGION WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP.
CAPPING WILL REMAIN TOUGH TO OVERCOME...SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ELEVATED CIN UPWARDS OF 150 J/KG.  WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION TONIGHT...BUT
ADMITTEDLY...CHANCES ARE QUITE SMALL.  IF STORMS DO FIRE...STRONG
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION THAT COULD LEAD TO HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.  THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEPART LATE THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  WARM EVENING TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON WEDS/THURS...THEN
PCPN TRENDS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DEEP MIXING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY...
AND ALSO CAUSING DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET DURING THE AFTERNOONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL RETURN OF PCPN CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST TRENDS DON`T SUPPORT
AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT FOR THE WEEKEND AS WAS PREVIOUSLY SUSPECTED...
SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A BIT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE WARMER. RIGHT NOW...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LLWS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG NW WINDS TO 40
KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE MORNING. POSSIBLE SOME SMOKE FROM A
FOREST FIRE OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY REDUCE VSBYS
TO MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM IN RHI OR AUW THIS MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN THE SANDY SOIL AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDS AND THURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH IN FAR NE WI ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR FAR NE WI FROM NOON THROUGH
7 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY...SO
HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THEN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ012-013-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FIRE WEATHER...KIECKBUSCH