Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 291959
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES TO BE ON CLOUDS TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL
TNGT/SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE CLOUDS HOLD TOUGH...THIS WOULD INHIBIT
DENSE FOG FORMATION. IF CLOUDS THIN THIS EVENING...THIS COULD LEAD
TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER A LARGE PART OF NE WI AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEADLINES.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES
OVER E-CNTRL MO WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDED NEWD INTO ERN WI.
WEAK HI PRES STRETCHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO CNTRL WI.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF CLOUDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM EAU-IMT WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND WRN
WI. THE RADAR MOSAIC WAS QUIET...OTHER THAN SOME SHWRS OVER NRN IL
AND NRN INDIANA.

THE INVERTED SFC TROF AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WL EXIT THE
REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER WI FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT. LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED LAST NGT (CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI). THE
PROBLEM FOR DENSE FOG IS THE STUBBORN STRATUS DECK WHICH WOULD
PREVENT VSBYS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. SATL DOES SHOW SOME THINNING
OF THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT RAISE TO WIDESPREAD
FOG ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. NOT CONFIDENT ENUF ON HOW LOW VSBYS
WL BE ABLE TO ATTAIN WITH THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.
THUS...NO HEADLINES FORTHCOMING AS OF NOW FOR INLAND AREAS.
HOWEVER...WEBCAMS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD FOG OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S N-CNTRL WI...
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE FOG WL BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WEAK AREA OF HI PRES JUST OFF
TO OUR EAST AND UPR LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD WI. AS LONG AS
THE FOG/STRATUS DO NOT HANG AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED...MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LWR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...BUT
UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUG.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY SMALL PCPN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE MAY FLATTEN A LITTLE MIDWEEK
BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS TO NC WI TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SMALL PCPN CHCS (20-30) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FCST...DUE TO A CONTINUED FEED OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND PERIODIC WEAK SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW SHOW
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THE BLOCKING INFLUENCES OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW...AND
H8 TEMPS +18 TO +20 C. THE MOIST FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MARINE
FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN NRN WI...THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HAVE
ESSENTIALLY NOT BUDGED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED SFC TROF
AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF STILL HAVE TO EXIT THE REGION...THUS
THESE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND THE REMAINDER OF NE WI
THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO THIN OR SCATTER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WOULD ALLOW THICKER FOG TO FORM
WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES LATE TNGT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FOG WOULD THEN TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN
OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......AK


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