Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 011747
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1147 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SMALL PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A COUPLE S/W TROFS AND JET STREAKS WERE SPLITTING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVG THROUGH SE
WI AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WAS PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES OVER OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER OVER WSTRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND FAR NW WI WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW WI.
EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES OVER OUR NW AND SE COUNTIES WITH THESE
SYSTEMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT OVER MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG...AND A
STRONGER S/W TROF OVER NE MONTANA WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY FLURRIES DUE TO A LACK
OF DEEP SATURATION.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
MONDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS...
WITH SOME TWEEKS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT BIASES. HIGHS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 RANGE...WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN HUDSON BAY TO A
CLOSED CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH
A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW TO BRING SNOW TO
THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD FALL ON TUESDAY.

MODEL QPF INDICATED AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENT. HAVE
MAINLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...SO AM THINKING THAT AN ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
NOT PLANNING ON ANY HEADLINES RIGHT NOW SINCE IT WOULD BE THE 5TH
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BUT COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
VERY COLD NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND VFR CIGS LOWERING MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN WI.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINOR. MAINLY MVFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KRHI AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI. SW
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH
INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......BERSCH





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