Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 230228
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
928 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/SATURDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES WEATHER.

THE 19Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LAST OF THE STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI. TEMPERATURES WERE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS WI TONIGHT...
PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD...THIS
WILL NOT STOP TEMPERATURES FROM QUICKLY FALLING DUE TO NEAR
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. THESE TYPES OF TEMPERATURES WOULD PROVIDE A HARD
FREEZING NORTH AND FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH FROST/
FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE NOT OFFICIALLY STARTED YET OVER NE WI...
ANYONE WHO HAS PLANTS OR FLOWERS OUTDOORS SHOULD EITHER COVER THEM
OR BRING THEM INDOORS TONIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SATURDAY...A BROAD RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WI AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH. ONSET OF WAA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) WITH A FEW CUMULUS POSSIBLE. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LAKESHORE WHERE ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVENT READINGS FROM WARMING TOO
MUCH. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES
LAKESIDE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

SEVERAL UPPER LOWS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY. IT SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD SETUP FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GULF
MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE IN TIME TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF AN
INCH OR MORE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE
ONCE MORE.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ONE MIGHT NOT HAVE
QUITE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT SHOULD PRODUCE A LONG
PERIOD OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

AFTER A DRY DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NEXT SUNDAY. CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD MAKE FOR COOLER THAN USUAL WEATHER
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE NIGHTS IT IS NOT RAINING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WI TONIGHT AND BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE A NICE DAY
TO FLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL



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