Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 280325
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1025 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRCIPITATION CHANCES
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SUNDAY AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH QUIET WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGRY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SIGNIFCANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE
STATE...SO EVEN WITH LOW PRESSURE APPRAOCHING FROM THE WEST CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AREA THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER...TOOK OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

A SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THROUGH STATE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SLOWING
TREND IN THE PREGRESSION OF PRECIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINSG SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SFC THAT
WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE RAIN CAN MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND...ESPRECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. WITH THAT MUCH DRY
AIR...AND WITH THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTING THORUGH WESTERN AND
THEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS A SFC LOW MOVES THORUGH SW
WISCONSIN AND NRN ILLINOIS...FAVORED A SLOW/DRIER SOLUTION. THIS
WOULD KEEP MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN DRY ON SUNDAY. MODERATE INSTABILTY
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO
A BREIF DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA...BUT IN GENERAL A WASH OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SEVERE
WEATHER IN NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ALMOST NULL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF ROCKIES UPR RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPR
TROF TO PRETTY MUCH REMAIN INTACT THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK...
ALTHO THE UPR RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST
COAST AND WEAKEN A BIT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROFS SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING SEVERAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD END UP NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

MOST OF ENERGY WITH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM STAYS WEST OF FOX
VALLEY...THEN NEXT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER AREA ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW/COOL POOL ALOFT.

MODELS STILL IN SOME AGREEMENT IN BRINGING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
FROM HUDSON BAY S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. THIS WOULD
BRING DRIER AIR INTO NRN SECTIONS OF WI ALONG WITH N-NE WIND
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK.

HI PRES IS FCST TO KEEP AREA WEATHER QUIET WEDNESDAY NGT THRU
MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT THERE ARE MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT
TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AS EXPECTED...
SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION NOTED IN 27/12Z MODELS SO HAVE SLOWED
DOWN PRECIP A FEW HOURS...MAKING MOST OF DAYTIME THURSDAY DRY.
BEYOND THURSDAY...WILL AGAIN USE MODEL CONSENSUS AS TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE.

TEMP FORECAST FOR MOST OF PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
MODELS. HOWEVER...DID ADD A COUPLE DEGREES TO MAX TEMPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF DOOR COUNTY...ESP WHEN WIND HAS WESTERLY COMPONENT...AS
MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING TEMPS COOLER THAN OBSERVED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVG.

ONLY SCT ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH FOG...AS AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIXED OUT
AND DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT FOG IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MODEL VSBY FORECASTS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS THINKING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT AROUND THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL WI. WILL
KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS AT AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG...AND A PROB30 AT RHI...BUT PLAN TO
KEEP THE EASTERN TAF SITES DRY (THOUGH PCPN MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO
ATW).
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH


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