Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 190434
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

THERE WERE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT THE EVENING TO BE DRY AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES PLACE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AS A SURFACE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED CYCLONE WILL CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE FIRST SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT HANGING AROUND IN
THE NORTH. SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH AT
MOST LOCATIONS...BASED ON PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.10 INCH AND BUFKIT
SHOWING TOTALS MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT
OTHERWISE THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...SO HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME WIND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. 3-HOURLY MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER ABOUT 06Z. SO HAVE TAKEN THIS
INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ALSO HAVE
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY AFTER TOPPING OUT AROUND MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR
WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS...COLD TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE COLD WIND CHILLS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS APPEAR TO BE MORE WESTERLY...A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FORM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE WEEK ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER EASTERN AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH THE DEEP UPPER LOW FINALLY NUDGES TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL HOLD OFF ON WARMING
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY.

RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY WILL START A TREND TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY.  PROGS SUGGESTS A WEAK S/W
PASSES JUST THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO BRUSH
A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE AREA. COLD GROUND AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX MENTION IF ENOUGH SATURATION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES PICK UP LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY THEN
SLOWLY PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE PHASING OF THIS COLDER PIECE OF
ENERGY...TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM LIKELY DEEPENS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TO ALLOW COLDER AIR TO POUR BACK INTO THE AREA ON NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

LOWER-END VFR CIGS PREVAILED ACRS THE E LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE W. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW AREA DEVELOPING OUT W IN MN PRODUCING MAINLY MVFR
VSBYS NOW. BUT EXPECT THOSE TO DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER ALIGNED OVER WI LATER TNGT.
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WED AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF
TO THE E.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI





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