Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 271728
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1228 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

COLD AIR WAS STREAMING INTO WISCONSIN AT 09Z BUT WAS BEING WARMED
A BIT BY TRAVELING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VILAS COUNTY UNTIL NOON OR SO WHEN
WIND SPEEDS SLOW. CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WOULD BE EVEN COLDER IF MORE OF THE REGION HAD SNOW
COVER.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS NEAR ZERO
POSSIBLE OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. SUNNY AND COLD WEATHER SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW USUAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO
THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SINCE
SYSTEMS MOVE FASTER IN THE MORE ZONAL FLOW...MODELS HAVE ISSUES WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEMS. ANOTHER ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY RAIN WHILE LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE
25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE...WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT.

MODELS SEEM PRETTY CLOSE IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE BY
MIDDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF WISCONSIN SO IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWED A SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE 00Z GFS HAD THESE FEATURES
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE 00Z GEM WAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WAS BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR AND THE EC WAS MORE
CONSISTENT...AND MORE OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...SO HAVE KEPT
CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SNOW AND/OR RAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORTH...AND RAIN OR A MIX IN THE SOUTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS.

SURFACE AND 500MB LOWS PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CONUS...WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT WITH HI PRES IN COMPLETE CONTROL
OF NE WI WEATHER. ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CU IN THE EAST WL
DISSIPATE BY EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
TNGT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE S-SW BEHIND THE SFC HI ON
SAT WITH SOME HI CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.