000
FXUS63 KGRB 162220
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
520 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z...WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
THERE WERE SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WITH THE STORMS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND WEST OF DULUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WERE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000J/KG RANGE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29...AND THERE WAS PRETTY
MUCH NO CIN AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM
12Z GRB/INL/MPX SOUNDINGS WERE BELOW 10000FT SO HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AND KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AND DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...IN ADDITION TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK/WEEKEND...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...
WITH DRY WEATHER AND BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE COLDEST
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST BEEF UP THE FROST
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO MIDWEEK.

PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...AS THE SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS. CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGEST ONLY LOW PCPN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN WI WEDS NGT INTO THU NGT...
AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO SUNDAY...DUE TO WSW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE AS THE COOLER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAY SEE A DIURNAL DECREASE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT A COMPLETE END TO THE SHOWERS AS A JET COUPLET SLIDES OVER
THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS JET COUPLET APPEARS TO BE AIDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN AT MID LEVELS WITH LOWER
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS NOTED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.
GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A
FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. MVFR
CIGS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH