Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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250
FXUS63 KGRB 061754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MVFR CIGS...WITH A FEW IFR CIGS...PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND THE 12Z NAM CONTINUING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THERE
WERE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THINK MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON TODAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CIGS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG



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