Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 090956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
356 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PCPN TRENDS...INCLUDING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER VILAS
COUNTY...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
UPPER TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE...WEAK S/W TROFS AND
CYCLONIC NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WERE COMBINING TO PRODUCE OCNL
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN WI. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND
ESPECIALLY VILAS COUNTY...WITH MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS OBSERVED
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND IRONWOOD. HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE
WINCHESTER WI WEB CAM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE
IS THAT AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW HAD FALLEN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM.

EXPECT SCT/NMRS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY TAPER OFF
FOR A BIT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER S/W
TROF MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW...
EXCEPT IN VILAS COUNTY...WHERE A FAVORABLE NNW WIND TRAJECTORY
AND LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S OF 20-22 C MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL 21Z FOR NOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY EVENING...UNTIL
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED S/W TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AND CAUSE
SNOWFALL RATES TO DECREASE. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT
AND PARTS OF DOOR COUNTY...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO COME
TO AN END DURING THE EVENING. WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE
OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NC WI ON WEDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS -22 TO -24 C TONIGHT. WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 TODAY...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SNOWBELT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO WEST.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND -20 F OVER PARTS OF NC/C WI
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDS...BUT WILL DEFER ANY DECISIONS ON
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES TO THE DAY SHIFT. RIGHT NOW...
CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO BORDERLINE FOR A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT A COMMON WINTER PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST.  IN THIS PATTERN...WILL SEE INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR
DIVE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.   ONE INTRUSION WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND/MORE POTENT BLAST
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR...THOUGH BOTH
AGREE THAT A BIG 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
WILL GIVE SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT TO THE GFS FOR TEMPS...WHICH AGREE
BETTER WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.  BITTER COLD TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...THEN BACK GRADUALLY TO THE WEST WITH IN THE INCOMING
ARCTIC HIGH.  THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SNOWBELTS.  ELSEWHERE...SHOULD HAVE A
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.  WITH A BREEZY NW WIND...SHOULD
HAVE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.  SOME PLACES OVER
CENTRAL AND N-C WI WILL BE FLIRTING WITH NEAR ADVISORY CHILLS.
THOUGH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THU...TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COMBO OF TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STILL PROMOTE
WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A CHANNELED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE POLAR VORTEX ON FRIDAY...AND LEAD TO ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTHWARD.  COULD SEE FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THESE CLOUDS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE
COLDEST PERIOD SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN WIND
CHILL HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY.  AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS START MODIFYING ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  THE NEXT
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL ALSO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE RHI WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE WITH MIXING INTO HIGHER
WINDS GIVEN A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI


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