Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 251947
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
247 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WERE EXITING THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...AND CU THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THAT LEAVES JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING INTO THE STATE FROM MINNESOTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG SEEM LIKE A GOOD
BET. MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO FOG BUT PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
HAD DENSE FOG UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.

THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE DISREGARDED THE AGGRESSIVE PCPN FCSTS OFF THE GFS
MODEL...AND REMOVED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE ONLY
KEPT A SMALL POP SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS H8 WAA INCREASES.

POPS ON TUESDAY ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS MODELS SHOW VERY WARM
H8/H7 TEMPS BUILDING INTO THE RGN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY PROVIDE A CAP FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS ALSO SHOW A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI DURING THE
DAY. HAVE REWORKED PCPN CHANCES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NC WI...WHERE THE BEST FORCING FROM THE S/W TROF IS ANTICIPATED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
SO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED. THREAT
OF SVR TSTMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE NIGHTTIME FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE STRONGER SHEAR LAGGING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AGAIN UNTIL FRIDAY AND`
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOW END VFR CIGS IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. DEW
POINTS AT 17Z WERE IN THE 65 TO 70F RANGE FROM WAUTOMA...TO
OSHKOSH AND MANITOWOC...BUT ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EAST INTO THE SHAWANO AREA. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING UNDER
THE SURFACE HIGH...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
THE PREVIOUS TAFS MENTIONED FOG AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT EVEN
THOUGH 12Z MET AND 12Z MAV GUIDANCE INDICATING LITTLE OR NO FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



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