Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 241901
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
201 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION PORTION/18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA TODAY....BUT ERODING ALONG THE EDGES AS MOISTURE
MIXED OUT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION TO DEVELOP.

THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT
WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD MID-DAY WITH
EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

TEMPS A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE SUNSHINE
SATURDAY WILL BOOST TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY`S CLOUDY
LOCATIONS DESPITE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.

THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND FOG SLOWLY ERODING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL BUT FOX VALLEY AND FAR NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG COULD REFORM TONIGHT FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE BETTER MIXED SO THINK THAT THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IS
LOW...BUT THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER BET. DRIER AIR
BEHIND FRONT WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......JKL







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