Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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500
FXUS63 KGRB 281714
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Noisy broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region will provide
more clouds as well as a few periods of showers today into this
evening and perhaps toward southern Wisconsin on Friday.

Short waves will dive into the upper trough today through Friday to
continue to gradually deepen the upper trough. The First wave
which brought heavy rain to parts of the state Wednesday and
Wednesday night is departing east central Wisconsin this morning
while water vapor satellite imagery shows another piece over the
Dakotas moving toward the area. This second wave is progged to
reach western Wisconsin this afternoon and phase into the broad
upper trough. As a result clouds will likely be more persistent
today and tonight. Showers and isolated storms will be a bit more
challenging due to drier air feeding into the area on northeast
winds at the surface. For east central and central Wisconsin,
pwats still progged to be around 1.50 inches for much of today and
will still be near 1.00 inches through Friday. Will continue the
chance pops going today but just slow down the ending trend from
the north this morning.

Surface dewpoints still lagging in the 60s over central and east
central Wisconsin today and evening, were producing some weak cape
values. Will confine any remaining thunderstorm mention today
over central and east central Wisconsin. With more clouds also
expected today, max temps have been lowered.  Will also linger
small shower chances over areas near southern wisconsin as the
broad upper trough slowly drifts over the southern Great Lakes
region through Friday. Relative humidity levels will be on the
decline for the remainder of the work week, especially over
northern Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Above normal temperatures expected to continue through much of the
period. Except for an isolated shower Friday evening across our
southwest counties...dry conditions should prevail through much of
the region. WRF/GFS continue to depict some precipitation Saturday
afternoon, thus continued a small chance of showers and storms
Saturday afternoon across the southwest counties.

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern Sunday into
Monday. An unsettled weather pattern will set up Monday night
through Wednesday. It is possible a complex of thunderstorms will
move across the region later Monday night into Tuesday. It is
possible these storms could be strong or severe. Will hold off on
adding it to the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) until I see a few
more runs with consistent timing and location of the complex.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Weak upper level disturbances will move across the region for the
rest of today and through tonight.  Scattered showers will continue
because of these disturbances, mainly along and south of route 29
and south of Sturgeon Bay.  Fairly widespread Mvfr cigs are expected
to continue in this area, becoming locally ifr within any showers.
The clouds and showers are expected to gradually drop south tonight,
leading to improving ceilings over the central WI taf sites.
However, remained more pessimistic for the east-central WI taf sites
as guidance now suggests clearing may not occur until Friday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......MPC



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