Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 280334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE FAR
SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE MTW TAF SITE
AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WILL KEEP VCSH AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF
THE TAF. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER NORTHERN
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



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