Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 190448
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1048 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Mostly sunny skies prevailed across the region this afternoon.
Temperatures were in the 50s to around 60. Several locations
have broken records for the date by at least 3 to 5 degrees.

For tonight, some mid or high clouds will stream across the
northern half of Wisconsin. Low temperatures will be fairly close
to guidance and previous forecast lows. For Sunday, trended toward
the warmer guidance or above across much of the area. Some concern
across far eastern Wisconsin where easterly flow should pick up
during the afternoon hours. Think winds will be light enough for
temperatures to warm to around 50 degrees. Record highs for Sunday
are generally in the middle to upper 50s, so a few record highs
are possible on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The pattern turns a bit more active during the work week as a warm
low pressure system tracks through the western Great Lakes to
start the week Monday and Tuesday. The system will have abundant
moisture to work with, as PWATs soar to 1 to 1.5 inches, as well
as strong dynamics as a vigorous mid level trough moves through
the region. This system will bring some modest instability north
and a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question, however
confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast. However it
appears likely that moderate to heavy rain is possible at times
which could cause some localized flooding of area streams. The
push of cold air behind this system will be minimal, as 850 mb
temperatures remain above freezing and highs on Tuesday remain a
good 20 degrees or more above normal.

After a brief break in the action late Tuesday through early
Wednesday, a weak low pressure system will track through the
western Great Lakes late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. What
this system lacks in punch, it makes up for in bringing
temperatures back down to a more seasonable level with
temperatures only 10 degrees above normal. This will set the stage
for the large system taking aim for the region Friday and next
Saturday. This system will pull cold air south during this period,
with the potential for several inches of accumulating snow late in
the week into next weekend. The best chance will be across north-
central Wisconsin closer to the coldest air, however there are
still discrepancies regarding how much cold air this system will
have to work with as some solutions pull some warm air fairly far
north into the western Great Lakes. This system will certainly
bear watching as it could have a significant impact if it can take
advantage of the cold air reservoir to the north.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR Conditions through the TAF period as weak high pressure ridge
drifts east across the forecast area late tonight into Sunday
with unseasonably mild airmass in place. Could be some patchy MVFR
fog just about anywhere across the forecast area toward daybreak
as boundary layer winds will be weak. However amount of radiational
cooling will be tempered some by area of high to mid-level clouds
that will drift across the area, thus confidence in MVFR fog is
low.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......ESB


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