Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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781
FXUS63 KGRB 060459
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



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