Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 132038
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MUCH DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND IT. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT RESULTED IN STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT. RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVING EAST INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS WOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING SO THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE EVENING.

HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
12Z...INCREASING TO CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LATER IN THE MORNING. DID
NOT GO WITH ANY THUNDER ON MONDAY DUE TO MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSES
AND LITTLE TO NO CAPE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOKED
PRETTY GOOD SO KEEP CLOSE TO WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TO GEORGIAN BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
SHOULD MAKE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL COME TO
AN END TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE 7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK COULD BE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CIGS WERE VFR ACROSS THE AREA AT 17Z...WITH ISOLATED
MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z...LEAVING ONLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND IT. DEVELOPING CU
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL PROBABLY FORM VFR CIGS WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE SHOULD BRING MVFR CIGS
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG





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