Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 262328
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
628 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO BE ON TEMPS AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHWR/FLURRIES ACROSS N-CNTRL WI DIMINISH AND HI PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER QUEBEC
WITH AN AREA OF HI PRES SITUATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. AS A RESULT...
A BROAD NORTHERLY WIND EXISTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND AIDED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES ACROSS UPR MI
AND NRN WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED WI SHROUDED UNDER A LOW
CLOUD DECK DUE TO A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD.
THERE WAS A CLEARING TREND TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MN AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WORK TOWARD WI.

CAA WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THRU THE NGT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROF SINKS SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES
SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT VILAS CNTY THIS EVENING...BUT TEND TO SHIFT
FARTHER WEST OVRNGT AS WINDS TAKE ON A N-NE COMPONENT. ANOTHER
FEATURE THAT WL IMPACT SNOW POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS TO
BUILD INTO WI THANKS TO THAT AREA OF HI PRES WHICH IS FCST TO
REACH SW ONTARIO BY 12Z FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT A MINOR ACCUMULATION
FOR NW VILAS CNTY (LESS THAT AN INCH) THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN FAR
N-CNTRL WI...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY AROUND
THE MIDNGT HOUR AND WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT...TEMPS WL
TAKE A TUMBLE. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO N-CNTRL...TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.

THIS HI PRES WL SETTLE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRI AND
PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT COOL DAY OVER NE WI. MAX TEMPS TO
BE AROUND 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH WOULD PLACE READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPR 20S NORTH/UPR 20S TO LWR 30S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW COLD TO GO
WITH MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...
AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SUSPECT
THAT THE SNOW COVER WILL BE GONE BY THEN...EXCEPT NEAR THE UPPER
PENINSULA BORDER. HAVE KEPT MIN TEMPS IN THE ZERO TO -5 RANGE
OVER THE FAR NORTH...WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM (WHICH PASSES TO OUR NORTH) AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO EXPECT MORE SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND RAISED SNOW ACCUMS TO A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL DURING THE WORK WEEK. MAJOR
PROBLEMS EXIST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT
STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN WI...WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK
THROUGH IA/IL. THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON ON GRB CWA...AND
BRINGS SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE REGION...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. THIS PORTION OF THE FCST WILL
REQUIRE SOME MORE WORK WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAY PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






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