Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 292329
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
629 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS EXIST OVER MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.  SOME CLEARING DOES EXIST OVER EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND THINK SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MAKE INROADS
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  CLOUD
TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID-EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI.  THINK THAT DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE PROGRESS THOUGH
TO CREATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  AS
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN...HOWEVER...CLOUDS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY GET RECYCLED WESTWARD OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.  BECAUSE OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA...THINK A WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY
DESPITE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM WE SAW A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AN ARCING BAND OF
RAIN WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  DRY AIR
ORIGINATING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP...BUT WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVER NORTHERN WI...WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT HAS
JOGGED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SET OF NWP RUNS...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INSTEAD OF THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ITSELF. THIS WILL BRING THE RAIN SHIELD A BIT
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HOWEVER DESPITE THE
NORTHWARD JOG MOST OF THE CWA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS NORTHERLY WINDS FROM A HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA PUMP IN DRY AIR. THEREFORE WILL RAISE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA AND TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT AS
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY ACROSS THE SOUTH DESPITE THE
NORTHWARD JOG OF THE LOW.

THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL THEN ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING THE REGION DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS THEN COME BETTER IN LINE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW SLATED
TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MODELS ARE BETTER IN
LINE...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THEMSELVES
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCY
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR THIS SYSTEM.

LATER IN THE WEEK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE REGION
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN STARK CONTRAST THE GFS PRODUCES WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOW WITH SUBSTANTIAL QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS APPEARANCE
OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF FIELD WILL NOT LEND MUCH CREDENCETO
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY GETTING ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 60S AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. PATCHY CIGS AT BKN050 WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO
TRACK OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
LIFT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
STATE INCLUDING PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...INCREASING LOWER END VFR CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR
CIGS CAN EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES ATW...MTW...AND GRB LATER
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......TDH


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