Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 251956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.




ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG



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