Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 211907
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. CUT POPS BACK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
BUT EVEN THERE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
EASTERN CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW EVOLVES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR
REGION. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
SHOULD BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WX SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR AS LOWER
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT
THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AND WNW WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

WARNINGS NO LONGER EXIST ON ANY OF THE AREA RIVERS OR STREAMS. ALL
HAVE SINCE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES...WHICH ARE EVEN NUMBERED
THEMSELVES. SCOTTVILLE...CROTON AND EVART ARE THE HOLD OUTS WITH
THE ONGOING ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
DROPPING RIVER LEVELS BUT SOME LOCALIZED AFFECTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

WE WILL SEE A QUICK HIT OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SHY OF CREATING
ANY CONCERN FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES
IN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM






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