Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 011930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM CANADA IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AROUND 60...BUT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FROM I-96 SOUTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE TOWARDS I-94 WHERE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS REALLY WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF A 100
J/KG. LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIALLY
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT.
LEFT THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN A LITTLE BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. 850MB LI/S GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD INTO MID WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS... BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER GRAND BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.