Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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685
FXUS63 KGRR 241128
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
728 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

It will be a wet weekend across Michigan as a front will stall
across northern Lower Michigan today and then slowly meander south
on Saturday. Periods of rain will continue into early next week as
low pressure approaches from the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

POPs and temperatures are the challenge in the near term as a
stalled front across northern Lower today sinks south tonight and
on Saturday. Expect afternoon maxes today to have a wide range,
from the upper 60s across the far south to the upper 40s across
the far north.

High res models show potential for some scattered showers
persisting across central zones this morning in an area of
continued isentropic ascent. POPs for this morning were shaded
south a bit to account for this. The afternoon should be dry
across much of the forecast area with some breaks in the overcast,
especially across the south under the crest of the upper ridge.

POPs increase again tonight and Saturday as the front sinks south
which also brings in shallow colder air with maxes restricted to
the 40s most places on Saturday. Sfc low is occluded and filling
as it approaches from the southwest on Sunday, but Lower Michigan
remains in an area of upper level divergence and coverage of
showers should continue to be extensive through much of Saturday
night and Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The wx pattern will remain showery and unsettled Sunday night
through Monday. A trough of low pressure will continue to bring
showers Sunday night into Monday. A low pressure system over the
Arklatex region early Monday will also move northeast and bring more
showers Monday night into early Tuesday.

Dry weather will finally return late Tuesday through Wednesday as a
high pressure ridge builds in from the north. Temperatures will
average above to much above normal through Tuesday before returning
to closer to normal for this time of year for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 728 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

VFR conditions should last into this evening then clouds and
showers move in with lowering ceilings. MVFR conditions this
evening will lower to IFR overnight and LIFR by Saturday morning.
Southwest winds will gust to 20 knots a times today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Waves will be near 4 feet today and into this evening from South
Haven to Grand Haven. Did not issue a SCA given marginal
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

An active weather pattern starting Thursday night and lasting
through at least early next week will provide multiple episodes of
at light rain, and occasional periods of heavier rain. Thursday
night through Sunday, rainfall totals between 0.75 and 1.5 inches
will likely fall over the area, with the higher-end amounts favored
in Muskegon river basin. River levels will likely rise as a result.
Some rivers may eventually climb back to bankfull next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...Ostuno



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