Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 060728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS
WILL STEADILY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A MAINLY DRY AND MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR MOTHER/S DAY AS ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE ONLY REAL WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND
THE CHCS OF RAIN AND THUNDER FROM TONIGHT INTO SAT AFTERNOON.

WE SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST MOVING OVER THE AREA NOW...AND
WILL SLOWLY CRAWL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. H850 TEMPS WILL BE
STEADILY INCREASING TODAY...HELPING TO GIVE THE AREA A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY/S MAX TEMPS.

THE MODELS HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE BIT WITH REGARD TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE THREAT OF PCPN TONIGHT. WE ARE SEEING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE IN HERE AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD POP OFF A FEW SHOWERS INITIALLY. THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVES LATER IN THE NIGHT RIGHT
NEAR THE FRONT.

SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS MOST OF THE EVENT HAS ONLY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY SNEAKS INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWFA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THERE. CLOUDS AND
SOME OF THE INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SFC HEATING
AND LIMIT THE SFC INSTABILITY.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RATHER QUICKLY THEN LATER ON SAT...AND LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN. SOME LIGHT FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER SAT NIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND WINDS DIMINISHING.

THE CHC OF RAIN IS NOT ZERO ON SUN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH THAT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NE OF
THE AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO PRINT OFF SOME LIGHT QPF EAST OF THE
CWFA. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE WELL IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ON MONDAY BUT SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF LOW SHOULD LIMIT
RAIN. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST NORTH OF A SFC WARM
FRONT. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL ON TUESDAY BUT
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED.

SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND SFC
AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS PERIOD COULD BE DRY. THEN ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PUSHES
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AFTER 18Z...BUT OTHER THAN SOME HIGH VFR LEVEL CLOUDS...NOT
MUCH IMPACT IS FORECASTED FOR THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE WINDY AND WAVY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL
COME UP LATER TONIGHT AND SAT...LIKELY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT. WINDS WILL THEN COME DOWN SAT
EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY POSTED FOR THE GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA... THE THORNAPPLE RIVER IN HASTINGS AND THE MAPLE RIVER IN
MAPLE RAPIDS. ALL RIVER LEVELS AT THESE SITES ARE RISING. THEY ARE
AT OR JUST ABOVE BANKFULL LEVELS AND SHOULD CREST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A FEW OTHER SITES ARE FORECAST TO CREST BY THE
WEEKEND. RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY SLOW THE FALL OF LEVELS... BUT
THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ


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