000
FXUS63 KGRR 241936
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIREWEATHER/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AREAS OF FROST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH NEARBY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE AREA. IT APPEARS MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE
DRY AT THIS POINT....BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY NOT BE FAR OFF TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LIMITED CONCERNS OVERALL IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT PERTAIN TO THE
THREAT FOR FROST TONIGHT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING THE FROST GIVEN TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WHICH RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH TO 35 AT AZO...BTL AND JXN HAVE OPTED
TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA. A GOOD SETUP FOR FROST
WITH SHELTER HEIGHT TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 33 TO 37
DEGREE RANGE IN MANY AREAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FROST FORMATION ON
THE GROUND ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT.
OVERALL UNDER CUT MOS READINGS WHICH SEEMED TO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP.
MOS MAY BE KEYING ON TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WE FEEL
MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE AND TOO QUICK. SO...FROST ADVISORY ALL
AREAS 06Z-12Z.

LIMITED CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TRY TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA. FEEL THE DRY AIR MAY BE A BIT TOO MUCH
TO OVERCOME AND THE MODELS MAY BE RUSHING THINGS A BIT. THAT SAID
850MB DEW POINTS COME UP FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY. SO...WE MAY NEED TO
ADD POPS IN THIS PERIOD WITH TIME. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO ADD THOUGH.




.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
12Z GFS GUIDANCE REMAINS FASTER WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT BUT WE WILL STICK WITH THE 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE AND
KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL TUESDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO AT LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND CERTAINLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
REACH WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL
GUST TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

DROPPED THE SCA EARLIER AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN UP A BIT FROM
MUSKEGON SOUTH. THE NEARSHORE BUOY/S CONFIRM WHAT THE WEBCAMS ARE
SHOWING WHICH IS A DECENT 2-4 FOOT WAVE FIELD. THE WAVE MODELS SHOW
THIS DAMPENING OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SO...WILL HOLD ON TO THE
2-4 FOOTERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN EXPECTING A PRETTY FLAT
LAKE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST AT LEAST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SO...FINE FUELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM RECENT RAINS. IT WILL
CONTINUE A BIT COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
SAT/SUN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...SO NO THREAT OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RH/S WILL DIP EACH AFTERNOON IN A DRY AIRMASS
TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW CRESTS
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. TWO
RIVER ADVISORIES REMAIN...FOR MT PLEASANT ON THE CHIPPEWA AND
WHITEHALL ON THE WHITE. THE USGS PERCENT OF NORMAL REAL TIME
STREAMFLOW PAGE SHOWS THINGS WELL...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TAPERING TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT
SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
FIRE WEATHER...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE