Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 031121
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
721 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 60S THURSDAY AND THEN 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY. BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NW
CWA AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LI/S AOB 0C AND THETA-E
DECREASING WITH HEIGHT WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA AS
WELL. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LOW SHEAR VALUES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. A
BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
VERY CHILLY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE LEFT IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THERE IS SOME
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. IF SKIES ARE
ABLE TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL A LOT LOWER THAN THE MINS IN
THE 40S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LOCAL AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WEST TODAY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THEN
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET NORTH OF GRAND
HAVEN. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR
HOLT BY THIS EVENING. SYCAMORE CREEK CONTINUES TO RISE AND IS
APPROACHING BANKFULL. AT BANKFULL... FLOODING ALSO BEGINS AT THE
LANSING MUNICIPAL GOLF COURSE AND SCOTT WOODS PARK. THE GRAND RIVER
AT IONIA MAY ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RAINFALL TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. BUT RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... SO
RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04



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