Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 231510
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER BEFORE
RAIN MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF RAIN MOST DAYS
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY.

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS THE PRECIP AFTER THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE A DECREASE IN THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NEXT WEEK LOOKS INCREASINGLY MUGGY. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL BE STRAIGHT OFF THE GULF AND ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID
60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST...ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVE OVER THE CWA. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT... WE/LL LIKELY DRY OUT A BIT.
HOWEVER...THAT COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE CWA
AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE PCPN LATER IN THE PERIOD. EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES MAKES PINNING DOWN PCPN TIME FRAMES VERY DIFFICULT.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOG WILL INCREASE AS WARM
AND HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WE WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE DRY AIR MASS, WITH
TEMPS REACHING THE LOW AND MID 70S. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MOSTLY IN CHECK...PERHAPS BRIEFLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH.
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE ADVECTING IN BY EARLY THIS EVENING
REDUCING THE RISK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
FIRE WEATHER...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO



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